000 
FXUS65 KVEF 311057
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
257 AM PST MON JAN 31 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE 
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS 
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA HAS MADE FOR 
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVAILED 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AGAIN TODAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS 
IN FROM THE WEST THERE AS WELL...WHILE A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH 
TO THE SOUTH REMAINS IN PLACE. OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE BREEZY WIND 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND IN PARTICULAR THE 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE AND PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATE THAT 
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND WILL DROP OFF 
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE A MINOR TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO 
RIDE OVER RIDGE TOP AND INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. SO FAR NO MOISTURE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE FOR IT TO WORK ON SO IT SHOULD BE A
NONEVENT FOR THE AREA. RIDGE ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND 
THE HANG BACK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF 
THE SHORT TERM WITH A CLOSED LOW TO FORM IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
TO OUR SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE GENERATED BY THIS LOW 
TO BE A FACTOR FOR OUR CWA.    
&&   

.LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
PATTERN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK 
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AND HOLDS NEAR NORTHERN BAJA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
THEN BEGINS TO PULL EAST SATURDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE GOING INTO 
SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF CENTRAL 
CANADA. THE GFS KEEPS IT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE IN 
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE TROUGH ALL 
THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION MAY DESERVE 
SOME CONSIDERATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE RUNS SINCE IT WOULD AT THE 
LEAST SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPS. WILL KEEP THE DAY 7 FORECAST CLOSER 
TO THE GFS FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED 
AT KLAS THIS PERIOD.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE. 
&&

$$

JACQUES/ADAIR