000 FXUS61 KBGM 201940 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 240 PM EST THU JAN 20 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT)... TONIGHT..ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 10-15 BELOW IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES. COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 30-35 BELOW FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY AND AROUND 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE. WILL UPGRADE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO A WARNING IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY...AND KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ZONES... BUT DONT THINK ACCUMS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. WILL MENTION 1-3 SOUTH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY..THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING AROUND 330 DEGS AND THE INVERSION AT 900MB...CANT RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ZONES...SO HAVE CHC POPS IN THOSE ZONES. FRI NIGHT..CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET IN THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SAT & SAT NIGHT..THE ETA/GFS REMAIN IN SEPARATE CAMPS...WITH THE ETA FARTHER NORTH/WETTER AND THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH/DRIER. BOTH MODELS ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST...BUT THE ETA HAS A BETTER DEFINED 850MB LOW WITH STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ETA...AND FEEL THE ETA HANDLES THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED QPF MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH THIS STORM...PROBABLY AROUND 30-1 DUE TO THE LARGE SNOW GROWTH AREA BETWEEN THE SFC AND 600MB. THE ETA QPF IS 0.4 TO 0.6 ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ZONES...WHICH COULD EASILY TRANSLATE INTO 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL ON SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIER SNOW ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY - THURSDAY) SOME LEFT OVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND DEPARTING STORM . WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES ON MONDAY THAT WILL BRING A CHC FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE A WARM UP FOR MID WEEK AS SFC RIDGE AND UPPER RIDGING MOVE EASTWARD. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND LEFT OVER SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION (20/18Z - 21/18Z)... SEVERAL TAF SITES ARE EXPERIENCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ITH, WHICH WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED HERE WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISBY WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT ELM, BGM AND AVP WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY IN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER 02Z. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...WIND CHILL WARNING MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY ALL ZONES EXCEPT NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. .PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY ALL ZONES. && $$ DAYS 1-2...VAN AUSDALL DAYS 3-7 & AVIATION...JML