000 
FXUS62 KTAE 200108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
807 PM EST WED JAN 19 2005

TROUGH AXIS LIES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SFC HIGH 
CURRENTLY SITS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF THE NEW ORLEANS AREA. WINDS 
ARE CALM THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND A CIG BETWEEN 6-7KFT IS FOUND AT 
MOST OBS SITES. THIS PRECEDES A FRONT TO THE NORTH THAT 
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY MORNING. BKN TO 
OVC CLOUDS WILL REMAIN UNTIL FROPA AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE RELATIVELY 
CLOUD-FREE. 

WE WILL CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND AS THERE REALLY ISNT THAT MUCH 
COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND THEREFORE TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD 
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY 
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FROM THE W/NW AROUND 10KTS...BUT AS 
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST...WILL SEE THEM 
SWITCH TO MORE OF A NW DIRECTION AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT 
RANGE. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT COASTAL FCST.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM AS RH 
VALUES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE CRITERIA LVLS TOMORROW AFTN.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

&&

MCNATT

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
215 PM EST WED JAN 19 2005
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION AND HAS 
BROUGHT THE COLDEST TEMPS THIS MONTH. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY 
SLIDING EAST AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 
THIS IS PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A LARGE BAND 
OF CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...JUST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-FRI. 
OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS 
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED FRONT ON 
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IT PASSES AND WASHES OUT. SLIGHT RIDGING 
AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 
TEMPS WARMING UP A TAD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE 
DIVING NORTH IN THE THE CENTRAL USA ON LATE FRIDAY FURTHER 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND MODERATING TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM...SAT-WED.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO 
DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LATE 
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DECENT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SET 
UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE 
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD 
INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHWEST 
AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY LATE SATURDAY. 
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BE A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS AS IT SETTLES OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. GFSX-MOS HAS TEMPS DIPPING TO THE MID 20S 
ON MONDAY...YET WILL ONLY TREND FORECAST TO SUB FREEZING VALUES. 
TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

$$

BOLINSKI