000 
FXUS64 KLIX 110817
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
220 A CST TUE JAN 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...INITIALLY...LOOKING AT FOG THIS AM. WINDS ARE MORE 
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTH AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF IS SOMEWHAT 
LIMITED. STILL AIRMASS IN LOWER LAYERS IS SATURATED. WEAK SOUTHEAST 
WINDS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO CAUSE FOG TO MOVE IN AND 
OUT WITH VISIBILITIES OSCILLATING FROM 2 TO 1/2 MILES. WILL KEEP FOG 
ADVISORY UP AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF BY SUNRISE WHICH IS 
THE WORST TIME FOR VISIBILITY ON BRIDGES.  SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS WEAK 
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA A BIT EARLIER THAN AVN MODEL 
FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM AVN MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ACCORDINGLY.

WILL SHOW PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TO NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AM BUT 
DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE AS LOW AS THIS AM. SURFACE WINDS 
SHOULD BE UP TO 10 KNOTS OVER LAND AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER WATER 
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD SUFFICIENT MIXING TO AIRMASS.
TIMING ON NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOUR MODEL RUNS. 
WILL GO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AVN AND ETA 250MB WIND 
PROGS HAVE A 110KT JET TO OUR WEST PLACING OUR CWA IN RIGHT REAR 
QUAD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THURSDAY AM. THIS IN IN GOOD TIMING WITH 
500MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA.  WILL INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND 
MENTION A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING.  ETA IS MORE OPTIMISTIC IN MOVING THE JET NORTHEAST OF THE 
AREA FASTER THAN AVN MODEL.  REST OF FORECAST LEFT AS IS EXCEPT FOR 
TEMPERATURES. RAISED THE MINIMUMS SEVERAL DEGREES BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOW MAIN COLD ADVECTION SHUNTING 
TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.      
 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

MCB  75 58 76 55 / 20 00 00 80
BTR  75 60 78 58 / 10 10 00 80 
MSY  75 62 76 62 / 10 10 00 50
GPT  68 58 72 61 / 10 10 00 40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTHEAST LA LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTREME SOUTH MISS MSZ068>071-077-080>082
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND 
LAKE MAUREPAS. 

&&

$$