000 FXUS65 KBYZ 101627 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 926 AM MST MON JAN 10 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE... MINOR UPDATES TO BOTH THE ZONES AND THE STATE FORECAST THIS MORNING. EROSION OF ARCTIC AIR TAKING PLACE WITH SOME AREAS IN THE WEST SEEING TEMPERATURES ALREADY AT FORECAST HIGH VALUES AND WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER IN THE EAST. HAVE REISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT ARCTIC INTRUSION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MACZKO .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED PACKAGE. MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC INTRUSION STILL ON SCHEDULE TO BLAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK VERY STRONG AND HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA INTO THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. READINGS MAY BE EVEN COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST BUT WILL NOT MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING TO REFLECT THIS DOWNWARD TREND. AS A RESULT OF COLDER LOWS...WILL ALSO LOWER THURSDAY HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT GETTING ABOVE ZERO. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT SNOW COVER...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS A RESULT...HAVE ADDED WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW IN GRIDS. LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AS WELL AS BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. GOOD INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS A COUPLE MORE INCHES FOR THOSE AREAS DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND LINGERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY COLD FRIDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT MODERATION BEGINS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOOLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 029 017/033 015/015 910/901 912/005 000/015 006/017 0/B 00/B 26/S 30/I 00/B 00/B 00/B LVM 033 017/031 018/018 908/001 910/009 901/021 005/023 1/N 10/B 36/S 30/E 00/B 00/B 00/B HDN 025 012/030 014/014 914/904 916/003 902/017 004/019 0/B 00/B 26/S 30/I 00/B 00/B 00/B MLS 021 007/024 008/008 920/910 922/901 910/011 904/014 0/B 00/B 24/S 20/I 00/I 00/B 00/B 4BQ 023 013/030 011/011 915/905 917/004 903/017 003/022 0/B 00/B 36/S 52/J 00/B 00/B 00/B BHK 021 007/024 006/006 920/913 922/906 909/006 903/008 0/B 00/B 24/S 20/I 00/I 00/B 00/B SHR 028 014/024 014/014 910/901 912/005 902/020 004/022 0/B 01/B 37/S 62/J 00/B 00/B 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS