000 FXUS61 KRNK 101552 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1052 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... STRATUS AND FOG BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST BUT IN THE WEST UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS WITH GUSTY WEST TO NW FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS CAN BE FOUND WELL UPSTREAM AND 12Z ETA SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM EXTREME NW NC THROUGH MUCH OF SE WV INTO THIS EVENING. BY THAT TIME...CIRRUS WILL BE ADDING TO OVERALL CLOUDS COVER. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA...WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST FROM 2-5 DEG. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION TO INDICATE MORE OF A WNW DIRECTION FROM NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALSO INCREASED SPEEDS A BIT. MADE SMALL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW PTS AS WELL PER LATEST OBS. KFCX RPG IS STILL DOWN AND LATEST PROGNOSIS IS THAT A PART NEEDS TO BE ORDERED. WILL HOPE TO GET IT BACK UP SOMETIME TONIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 751 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE FOR MRNG STRATUS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL NC AND PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VA...AS WELL AS FASTER ADVANCE OF LOW CLOUDS IN WEST BEHIND TROF. PRODUCTS OUT IN A FEW MINUTES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 635 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005) AVIATION... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD BE STRONGEST AT ROA... BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 10 KT. STRATO-CUMULUS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BLF AND LWB THIS MORNING...BRINGING MVFR CIGS- LOWEST AT BLF. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TESE CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE VFR BY TUE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND MOISTURE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS CAUSING LOW STRATUS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. AS INVERSION SLOWLY BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS MIXED OUT...EXPECT STRATUS TO BURN OFF AND SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED...DRY IS THE WORD. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. BASICALLY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR MOST AREAS. && LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PUT THE AREA IN A DAMMING PATTERN. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH CLOUDINESS AND/OR PCPN TO REINFORCE THE WEDGE. BASED ON BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PCPN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THU AFT/EVE...EVEN THOUGH ETA HAS NONE IN MY FA. THINK THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH CLOUDINESS TO HOLD MAX TEMPS TUE DOWN CLOSER TO THE FWC/MAV MAXES. AFTER THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES TUE NIGHT THE FNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE AR EIN THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN. MAIN CONCERN IS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. SHOULD BE HEAVIEST IN THE MTNS AND ESPECIALLY NW NC WITH AN UPLSOPE FLO DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...SO I LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS. STILL LOOKS LIKE 60S FURTHER EAST. LONG SSE LOW LEVEL FETCH DEVELOPS BY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPCHNG FNT. LOOKS LIKE A SETUP FOR UPLSOPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NW NC SO I RAISED POPS WED NIGHT TO CHC THERE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOC PCPN...SO I RAISED POPS TO LIKELY THU AFT IN THE MTNS...AND LIKELY THU NIGHT FROM THE FOOTHILLS EWD. WITH THE SSE FLOW AND MODELS DEPICTING PWATS >1.5 ADVECTING INTO THE SRN APPLNS...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE HEAVY UPSLOPE PCPN THURSDAY. I MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FCST BEYOND THU NIGHT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 02