000 FXUS61 KCLE 100727 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 230 AM EST MON JAN 10 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE OHIO RIVER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARGINAL CIGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOW INTO NW OHIO WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AREA THIS MORNIG. IFR/VFR CIG/VIS IN EXTREME NW OHIO SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS PICK UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH FLO 06Z WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. && UPDATED SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... WINDS BECAME LIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES HAD SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED. STRATOCU MAKING A RETURN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL BOOST TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND SHOULD LIGHTEN UP THE FOG A BIT SO NO FOG ADVISORY NECESSARY. ELSEHWERE TEMPS ARE HOLDING UP WITH THE SOUTH WIND AND WAA. OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST OHIO TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT SO WILL REMOVE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND JUST ALLOW FOR SOME DRIZZLE AS SOME UVV AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. IF SOME DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP IT MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIZZLE EARLY MON MORNING. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT (DOWN NW OHIO) AND MAX TEMPS MONDAY. REMOVED SNOW FROM CLEVELAND AREA FCST MONDAY NIGHT SINCE BY TIME PCPN ARRIVES SHOULD BE WARMING UP. ADJUSTED WINDS WERE NECESSARY OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES. UPDATE AROUND 10 PM. && .PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FROM 319 PM... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUES)... CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND OUR LAST SHOT AT SEEING THE SUN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN TO OVERCAST SKIES. OTHER PROBLEM TO DEAL WITH IS TEMPERATURES. I AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND 32 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME DRIZZLE FALLING WITH THE FRONT OVER IOWA AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS THERE COULD BE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE MIX OVERNIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WEAK SURFACE HIGH RACES EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER OKLAHOMA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THIS AREA. THE LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA MAY BE TRISECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHERE A MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN COULD OCCUR FROM LUCAS COUNTY EAST TO GEAUGA COUNTY WITH SNOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THAT AREA AND PLAIN OLD RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ENOUGH WARM AIR PUSHES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO CAUSE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD KEEP THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SNOW. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AIR MASS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN. THEN FOR TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AS 850 MB FLOW OPENS UP THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. WILL STAY REASONABLY CLOSE TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. I DONT ANTICIPATE A MAJOR SWING BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... COLD AIR OUTBREAK STILL POISED TO STRIKE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATER PERIODS OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION WILL CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALASKA WITH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FLOW STRAIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH POLE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO BY AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. BUFKIT GUIDANCE FROM THE GFE SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ENOUGH THAT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE HEARD. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEN...AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING...FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TO FIRE UP LAKE EFFECT. LAKE INDUCED CAPE REACHES ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GFS RUN SHOWING EXTREME. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A LONG PERIOD OF MEAN WINDS TO SUPPORT LAKE SNOW BANDS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS MEANS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT ON TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS NEXT COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL HELP IN THE FORMATION OF ICE ON LAKE ERIE BUT AS IN PAST CASES...TOTAL ICE COVER HAS NOT PREVENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM DEVELOPING. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND FINALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE AREA. ADDED MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. WILL STAY RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... THREAT OF RISES FROM RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH SNOW MELT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ON TOP OF THE SNOW MELT WILL ALSO ADD TO THE FLOODING PROBLEMS. GROUND CONTINUES TO REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS AND SNOW MELT. RUNOFF WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN AFTER THURSDAY WHEN ARCTIC BLAST HITS THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING TO RUNOFF TO FREEZE AND RIVERS TO BEGIN TO ICE UP AGAIN. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ UPDATED SHORT TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY HYDROLOGY...LOMBARDY AVIATION...DJB