000 
FXUS65 KFGZ 100409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 
900 PM MST SUN JAN 09 2005

.SYNOPSIS...AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR
7500 FEET TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN FALL SHARPLY EARLY
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOWS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE 
EAST PACIFIC WITH A FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO TAKE AIM AT THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER 
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...THINK 
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM A 
PRESCOTT/FLAGSTAFF LINE NORTHWARD. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 
FACT THAT AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WERE SPREADING ACROSS A GOOD 
PORTION OF THE CALIFORNIA DESERT DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERY 
WEATHER TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY...MAINLY FROM A PRESCOTT/FLAGSTAFF 
LINE NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE 
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND 
GRAND CANYON COUNTRY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED 
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY NIGHT 
LOOK TO BE OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE LONG-WAVE 
PATTERN WILL SHIFT TOWARD ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER 
UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. THE TUESDAY STORM WILL BE 
COLDER AND RESULT IN LOWER SNOW LEVELS (IN THE 6000 TO 6500 FOOT 
RANGE) AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
ARIZONA. 

MCCOLLUM

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY 
AZZ 006-007-008-018-037-038.

SNOW ADVISORY 6 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 PM MST MONDAY AZZ 004-006.

&&

$$