000 
FXUS62 KILM 241502
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
RADAR COMPOSITES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST 
CONFIRM THE TREND ESTABLISHED BY THE 12Z MODELS THIS MORNING... 
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE FRONT WILL COME BACK INTO THE AREA LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED 
WITH SLEET ALONG THE COAST. THIS WAS INITIALLY THE SOLUTION THE 
MODELS HAD SETTLED ON DAYS AGO AND NOW APPEARS TO BE THE PREFERRED 
SOLUTION AGAIN. 

FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...TODAY...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF INCREASING SKY COVER TO OVERCAST IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT 
FORECAST. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY LATE IN 
THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. TONIGHT WILL BRING IN A 20 
PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG THE COAST. NO 
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY 
EXPECTED. ALSO RAISED LOWS A LITTLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND 
THICKER CLOUD COVER. 

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BETWEEN 2-3 K. RADAR INDICATES 
MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWARD...AND INCOMING ETA ALSO SHOWS 
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. LOOK FOR 
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE INTO COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MFR RANGE. 
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TWENTIES...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL 
PROBABLY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SLEET LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BETWEEN 2-3 K. RADAR INDICATES 
MOISTURE TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWARD...AND INCOMING ETA ALSO SHOWS 
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. LOOK FOR 
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE INTO COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE MFR RANGE. 
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TWENTIES...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL 
PROBABLY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SLEET LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TRA
MARINE...MBB
AVIATION...HDL