000 
NOUS43 KGLD 102329
PNSGLD

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 PM MST FRI DEC 10 2004

...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN 2004?...
         
EACH YEAR AS THE HOLIDAY SEASON APPROACHES...THE SAME QUESTION 
ARISES...WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?  WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE 
AREA INDICATE THAT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST HAVING MEASURABLE SNOW OCCUR 
ON CHRISTMAS DAY...OR HAVING SNOW ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS MORNING 
FROM A PREVIOUS SNOWFALL.  

WEATHER RECORDS FOR GOODLAND DATE BACK TO THE 1890S, WITH CONTINUOUS 
RECORDS BEGINNING IN 1919.  IN THE 91-YEAR WEATHER RECORD...THE MOST 
SNOW ON THE GROUND ON A CHRISTMAS MORNING OCCURRED IN 1941...WHEN A 
13 INCH SNOW DEPTH WAS MEASURED.  IN ADDITION...ALMOST FOUR INCHES 
OF NEW SNOW FELL DURING THE DAY.  THE TWO WEEK PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 
22ND 1941 THROUGH JANUARY 7TH 1942 WAS COLD AND SNOWY IN GOODLAND 
WITH MANY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO.  1982 WAS ALSO A BIG 
YEAR FOR SNOW AROUND THE HOLIDAYS...WITH 10 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED 
ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS MORNING.  IN MORE RECENT HISTORY...1997 AND 
1998 SHOULD BE REMEMBERED FOR THEIR WHITE CHRISTMAS.
 
HERE IS A LIST OF THE YEARS HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS...DEFINED BY A 
SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENT OF 1 INCH OR GREATER ON CHRISTMAS MORNING:

1...1941...13 INCHES
2...1982...10 INCHES
3...1939....8 INCHES
4...1997....5 INCHES
5...1968....4 INCHES
6...1973....4 INCHES
7...1983....2 INCHES
8...1985....2 INCHES
9...1998....2 INCHES
10..1948....1 INCH
11..1952....1 INCH
12..1962....1 INCH
13..1963....1 INCH
14..1965....1 INCH
15..1984....1 INCH

HERE IS A LIST OF YEARS HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS, DEFINED BY 
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF 0.1 INCH OR GREATER ON CHRISTMAS DAY: 

1...1941...3.9 INCHES
2...1939...3.3 INCHES
3...1982...1.3 INCHES
4...1966...1.2 INCHES
5...1985...1.2 INCHES
6...1930...1.0 INCHES
7...1990...0.4 INCHES
8...1997...0.3 INCHES
9...2000...0.1 INCHES

TO PUT THE WEATHER RECORDS IN PERSPECTIVE...THE GOODLAND OFFICE HAS 
REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 1 INCH OR GREATER ON CHRISTMAS MORNING IN 
15 OF 91 YEARS...OR 16% OF THE TIME.  DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF 
RECORD...MEASURABLE SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF OCCURRED IN 
9 OF THE 91 YEARS...OR 10% OF THE TIME.  COMBINING THOSE YEARS WHEN 
SNOW EITHER FELL CHRISTMAS DAY OR SNOW WAS ALREADY PRESENT FROM A 
PREVIOUS SNOWFALL...THE PROBABILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN GOODLAND 
IS 19/91...OR 21%...OR ABOUT 1 IN 5.  RECORDS FOR NEARBY SURROUNDING 
AREAS ARE LIKELY SIMILAR.

THIS YEAR...WINTER OFFICIALLY ARRIVES DECEMBER 21ST AT 5:42 AM MST.  
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET IN DECEMBER SO FAR...AND 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY (DEC 12-13)...THE OUTLOOK THROUGH ABOUT DECEMBER 
20TH CALLS FOR GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS 
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHETHER 
THERE WILL BE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 
DAYS JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS.

FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE COUNTRY VISIT: 
HTTP://LWF.NCDC.NOAA.GOV/OA/CLIMATE/EXTREMES/CHRISTMAS.HTML

IF YOU ARE TRAVELING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS HOLIDAY 
SEASON...DRIVE SAFELY...AND DONT FORGET TO CHECK FOR THE LATEST 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND 
ADVISORIES ON NOAA ALL-HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO...OR VISIT OUR WEB SITE 
AT:  HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GLD/

HAVE A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON.


DAVID FLOYD
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

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