000 
FXHW60 PHFO 022046 AAA
AFDHFO

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1045 AM HST THU DEC 2 2004

UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORY

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST 
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ISLAND WEATHER BREEZY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS KEEPING THE 
ATMOSPHERE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD 
AND WILL TAKE ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 
IT...LEAVING THE ISLANDS SUNNIER TODAY...THEN DRIER BUT WINDIER 
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE...STRONG 
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE 
AREAS OF LEEWARD KOHALA AND SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AND IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEY OF MAUI. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE 
LOCATIONS TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...
A HIGH LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. 
JET STREAM CLOUDINESS ALONG ITS SOUTHEAST FLANK IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 
WITH IT...AND HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS...SOME WITH A 
WAVE CLOUD PATTERN...REMAIN OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...BUT 
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...THESE SHOULD CLEAR EVEN THAT 
ISLAND LATER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH...ALONG WITH A CLOSED 
LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE...IS ALSO CAUSING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY TO 
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY. THIS AREA IS ALSO 
MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING BY 
TONIGHT AS WELL. MODELS ALSO SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH AND POSITIVE 
VORTICITY AREA MOVING TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS 
MAY WELL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS AGAIN TONIGHT 
TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THE STRONG 
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS TROUGH SHOULD BOTH DRY THE ATMOSPHERE 
BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT 
ALSO ENHANCE THE ALREADY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE STATE. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
A RAPIDLY MOVING SURFACE LOW...THE COMBINATION OF THE REMNANT OF 
TYPHOON NANMADOL AND AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW FROM OFF THE ASIAN 
MAINLAND...IF FORECAST TO ZIP ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
MAIN NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW. BY MONDAY NIGHT THIS WILL HAVE DEPRESSED 
THE HIGH NOW CAUSING THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE STATE FAR ENOUGH 
SOUTH AND CLOSE TO OUR ISLANDS THAT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS THAT 
HIGH IS PRESSED EVEN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...BUT ANY CHANCE FOR 
INCREASED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN A 
500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES 
WILL REMAIN UP FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SURF WILL REMAIN ABOVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG EAST 
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE 
HIGH SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES FROM NIIHAU TO MAUI TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH STRONG TRADE WINDS AND STABLE CONDITIONS IT MAY BECOME QUITE 
TURBULENT AT LOW LEVELS OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A SIGMET 
FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY...SOUTH POINT AND LEEWARD KOHALA ON THE BIG ISLAND AND 
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY ON MAUI TODAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY...EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI 
AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY...NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU 
MOLOKAI MAUI TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

$$
FARRELL/WROE