000 FXUS63 KAPX 162048 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 348 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2004 .SHORT TERM...SO MUCH FOR THE DRIZZLE ENDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF HEAVIER DRIZZLE QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MI AROUND NOONTIME ...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK QG FORCING DEPICTED BY BOTH THE ETA/GFS STILL PREVALENT OVER THE STATE. AREA OF DRIZZLE NOW DIMINISHING PER RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS VAD WIND PROFILE FINALLY SHOWING DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER BEGINNING TO SHRINK. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIGS <2K FEET) REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE MI SHORELINE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOME BREAKS THAT HAVE OPENED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI AND DOWN INTO LAKE HURON. FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE WHETHER OR NOT TO CARRY DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THEN...PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. THIS EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...KAPX RADAR/VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS SUGGESTS AREA OF DRIZZLE DIMINISHING AND DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER SHRINKING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LINGERING QG FORCING WANES AND INVERSIONS LOWER. BUT DUE TO TIMING OF FORECAST ISSUANCE WILL CARRY PATCHY DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BASICALLY WHERE IT NOW APPEARS ON RADAR. OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO MN/IA DUE TO MOVE THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN WED MORNING. SYSTEM SIMILAR TO SHORTWAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY EXCEPT WITH QUITE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE TAKING THE VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH NRN LOWER MI WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH NOW OCCURRING UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE WAVE BUT EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP FROM IOWA UP INTO WI THIS EVENING...NOSING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE CWA WED MORNING. CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK WILL BE TO EXPAND POPS A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT PER LATEST TIMING AND NUDGE UP POPS WED OVER NRN LOWER WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL RESIDE. TEMPS...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS ON WED AS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WARM. .LONG TERM...WE WILL SPEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO... AND AN UPPER RIDGE POKING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER WILL MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHERN LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. WED NIGHT...SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WITH MID-LELVE DRYING BEGINNING IN THE FAR EAST BEFORE 00Z...WILL NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT EVEN AS 1000-850MB WINDS VEER FROM SW TO W. 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM +5C (NE) TO +9C (SW) BY 12Z. STILL AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW 850MB INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP US UNSEASONABLY WARM UNDER A SOLID OVERCAST. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW AROUND 50/S POSSIBLE (NOTE THAT NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S). FOG CONTINUES TO BE LIKELY...AND ADD DRIZZLE FOR WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS IN NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI. THURSDAY/THU NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION OOZES IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 1000-850MB WINDS VEER NW AND THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE HEADS OUT OVER LAKE HURON. THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...A LOW OVERCAST WITH FOG (MAYBE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL NOT ADD DRIZZLE TO THE 4TH PERIOD YET). BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT...THE INVERSION WILL CRASH DOWN BELOW 900MB. THE COOLER/ DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL FINALLY END THE WIDESPREAD FOG/DRIZZLE THREAT...AND MAYBE PERMIT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING (ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT). COOLER AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S. MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE COOLER...LOWER TO MID 30S. REST OF THE FORECAST...PRESENT UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UNDERGOES SERIOUS BUCKLING THIS WEEKEND. GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SUITE INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. IF THE DISTANT REACHES OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE TO BE BELIEVED...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A RIDGE-WEST/TROF-EAST PATTERN... SOMETHING THAT IS RATHER OVERDUE. WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER INTO SATURDAY...WITH COLD/ OCCLUDED FRONT PROGGED TO SOMEWHAT SLOWLY WORK THRU THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CHANCE POPS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN LOWER AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH. HIGHER POPS IN ORDER ON SATURDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...MIXED PRECIP EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY SNOW AFTER THAT. CONTINUED GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW (TIMING NW FLOW SHORTWAVES OUT THAT FAR IS A FUTILE ENDEAVOR). STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE SNOWBELTS (AT LEAST) HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT A WHITE THANKSGIVING. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ADAM LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...ZOLTOWSKI