000 
FXUS63 KILX 131608
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1008 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST 1545Z VISIBLE 
SATELLITE PLACES A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW LOW 
CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE 
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR TEMPERATURES AND MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.   

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS 
THIS WEEKEND...WITH MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN FOCUSING ON AFTERNOON 
HIGH TEMPS.  LONGER-TERM ISSUES INCLUDE TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM SLATED 
TO AFFECT REGION BY TUE/WED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...06Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS 
STATES.  LIGHT NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS REGION...WITH CURRENT TEMPS 
MAINLY IN THE 30S.  VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z 
KILX UPPER AIR SOUNDING.  AT UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT FLOW REGIME 
PREVAILS...WITH NORTHERN STREAM WELL NORTH NEAR THE US/CANADIAN 
BORDER.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CONUS...WITH CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SW. 

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.  EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO 
PERSIST TODAY...KEEPING TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE DESPITE ABUNDANT 
SUNSHINE.  LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING 
ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST SW OF 
THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT.  00Z ETA12 TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS 
INDICATE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING AFTER 00Z 
SUN...SO CIRRUS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
MET/FWC/MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR...SO WILL USE A 
BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE COOL SIDE.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE JUST 
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING 
OUT AROUND 50.  AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS SE ON SUN...TEMPS WILL RESPOND 
BY RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  

ETA/GFS80 BRING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM SW CONUS CUT-OFF LOW NORTHEAST 
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON MON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH 
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN A WARMER 
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.    

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO 
DIVERGE BY MON NIGHT...AS GFS80 BECOMES MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM AS IT PHASES INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM.  DUE TO THE PRESENCE 
OF UPPER RIDGING AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE OHIO 
VALLEY...WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER AND DRIER ETA WITH THIS FORECAST 
PACKAGE.  WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS INTO THE GRIDS BEGINNING ON 
TUE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  
LIGHT PRECIP TO LINGER TUE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END 
WED...AS UPPER ENERGY PUSHES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.  DUE TO 
RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR 
WED...HOWEVER DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO REMOVE THIS AFTER THE 12Z MODELS 
COME IN.

AFTER THAT...GFS SWINGS WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THU...WITH 
NO ASSOCIATED QPF.  NW FLOW TO PERSIST ALOFT...WITH TEMPS REMAINING 
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE 
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS SW LOW FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD.  LATEST 
EXTENDED GFS DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW AND TRACKS IT TOWARD THE OHIO 
VALLEY BY FRI...BUT WILL LEAVE GRIDS DRY FOR NOW...PENDING FURTHER 
MODEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.

&&

$$

13/BARNES