000 FXUS65 KCYS 131055 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 350 AM MDT SAT NOV 13 2004 .SHORT TERM...TDA AND TNGT...ENOUGH MSTR IN LOW LEVELS HAD ADVECTED IN...WITH SOME FOG IN FAR SE WY. FOG ALSO DVLPG OVER ERN CO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE SRN PART OF THE PNHNDL BY 7 AM OR SO. UPR LOW CONTS TO SPIN OVER AZ AS ANOTHER BUNDLE OF ENERGY DROPS ACRS SRN CA. OVERALL...MODELS TNGT ARE PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH FTRS...WITH THE PCPN NOT SPRDG AS FAR N INTO THE AREA TNGT. HAVE TRIMMED SOME POPS BACK FOR THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WITH MAIN CHCS OF PCPN TNGT...MAINLY S HALF OF AREA. WILL PROBABLY GET REDVLPMNT OF LOW CLDS AGAIN TNGT. TEMPS TDA ON COOL SIDE IN SRN HALF OF AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA. .LONG TERM...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS NWD ON SUN ACROSS OUR CWA. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES (CARBON CNTY) WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AND OROGRAPHICS WILL ASSIST. COOL DAY WITH CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE WANES AND ENERGY DECREASES SUN NIGHT THUS DRY. MINIMAL EFFECT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WRN SD ON MON WITH 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS PASSING INTO OUR ERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. WARMER DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 6C AT 00Z/TUE AND MINIMAL CLOUDS. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE ON TUE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 579 DEKAMETERS. WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 10C (50F) AT 00Z/WED AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER...MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S. SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON WED WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA WITH SOME MINOR COOLING BUT NO PRECIPITATION DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE/NIL DYNAMICS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ENSUES ON THU AS A WEAK UPPER LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CO BY GFS. CLOUD COVER LOOKS OVERDONE ON GFS. STILL MILD ON THU WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 5C (41F) AT 00Z/FRI. COOLER FRI AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NWLY WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...COOLER LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW...AND 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 6C AT 00Z/SAT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$