000 FXUS61 KPHI 090157 AAA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 900 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2004 ...UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE ONLY SOME MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF CLOUDINESS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS PA AND NY STATE. HAVE ALSO REMOVED TEMPORAL REFERENCES WHERE NEEDED. SCA WILL ALSO BE DROPPED FOR LWR DEL BAY. LSN 215 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2004 .OVERVIEW... BOTH MDLS WERE NOT DEEP ENUF WITH THEIR INIT OF THE H5 TROF OVR NY/NEW ENG THIS MRNG BY ABT 10-30M WITH A NOD TO THE GFS FOR BEING CLOSER. DITTO WITH THEIR H8 INIT AGAIN FOLLOWING THE PAT A BIT TOO WARM NEAR US. UPSTREAM THE NEWS IS BETTER AS THE GFS INIT PRETTY WELL AND SLGLTY BETTER THAN THE WRMR ETA. THUS THE LATTER THERMAL FIELDS WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 72HRS. BEYOND THAT WE WILL BE USING THE 06Z GFS RUN AS A COMPROMISE BTWN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z RUN AND ITS SLOWER CLOSED OFF SOLN AT 00Z. THE GFS HAS NOT HAD MUCH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND WE HAVE BEEN FLWG THE MDL RUN WHICH MATCHES THE ECMWF THE CLOSEST. THE ECMWF HAS HAD DECENT RUN TO RUN CONT OF LATE AND HAD MUCH SUCCESS WITH LAST WEEK/S WET WX. UPSHOT FOR US WILL BE THE ONLY DECENT PCPN PRODUCING EVENT...IF ONE WANTS TO CALL IT THAT...WILL BE WITH WAVY CFP LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI FLWD BY COLDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND. PAT CHANGE HAS STARTED ACRS THE ERN U.S. AS WE WILL HAVE TWO SHOTS OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR NOW AND OVER THE WEEKEND. CLSD HI SE OF ICELAND HAS KEPT THE NAO IN ITS ONGOING NEG PAT. WHL THE CLSD HI IS NOT IN THE COLDEST LOCALE FOR US IT IS ENOUGH TO INDUCE THE NEW TROFFING IN ERN NOAM. ITS FAR ENUF E TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE COLD SHOTS WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NML TEMPS ARND THU B4 THE NEXT SHOT COMES ALG. LONGER RNG PROGS SUPPRESS THIS RDG SWD AND SHLD RETURN THE NAO CLOSER TO ZERO. ELSW THE PERSISTENT CLSD LOW OVR THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY TWO OTHERS AS A PERSISTENT ERN PAC RDG IS NOT IN THE OFFING (YET?). THE PNA BRIEFLY GOES POSITIVE B4 EXPECTED TO GO NEUT AGN. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WELL IT LOOKS LIKE NOV OUT THERE TDY WITH THE CAA SC AND THE PALE BLUE SKY. BUT...TEMPWISE IT WILL FEEL LIKE ERLY DEC TNGT THRU WED NGT. IN OUR NWRN ZNS...THE CONTG CAA COUPLED WITH A SHRT WV AND THE LES TRAJ WILL LET US KEEP OUR CUR WORDING OF SCTD FLURRIES LOOKING GOOD. ELSW...THE CUR CI IS DEPICTED WELL ALG THE SRN EDGE OF THE H2.5 DVRG AXIS. HARD TO TELL BY 00Z IF IT JUMPS (EWD) OR JUST WKNS. EITHER WAY IT POINTS TWD THE CI THINNING. CONCURRENTLY WOULD EXPECT THE CU/SC TO NOT GET TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AS THE ETA IS NOT THAT BULLISH AND USUALLY OVERDOES IT IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS. PHL AND THE CSTL ZONES MIGHT NOT MAKE IT TO FREEZING TNGT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE FREEZE WRNG GOING IN ALL OF THE PRESENT ZONES. AND IF PHL AND THE CSTL ZONES DON/T GET TO FRZG TNGT...THEY SHLD TMRW NGT. GRAD WKNS TWD MRNG...SO THE FREEZING TEMPS MIGHT BE REACHED BY THE QUASI-RDTNL CONDS TWD MRNG. GIVEN THE SLGTLY TOO WARM MDL INIT...WE WILL LEAN TWD THE COLDER GUID DATASETS FOR MINS. ON TUE AS STG RDGG AND NVA BEGINS...WE EXPECT THE LES RESIDUALS TO ABATE IN OUR NRN ZNS IN THE MRNG. BUT...CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHLD STILL BE REACHED. WE HAVE KEPT THE CUR ISOLD FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS FOR TUE MRNG AND LET THE A TEAM ON THE MID SHIFT MAKE THE CALL IF ITS OVR BY THEN. ELSW CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHLD BE REACHED...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS TDY. THE OTHER CONCERN RMNS THAT THE H8 TEMPS AND H10-H8.5 THICK DON/T JELL WITH THE MOS MAX TEMPS (TOO WARM) AND WILL TAKE A BIT OFF THE TOP. TUESDAY NGT LOOKS LIKE THE QUINTESSENTIAL EXAMPLE OF RDTNL COOLING BASED ON THE BIG (AS IN BIG) OLD SFC HI SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF US. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT (MORE SO N THAN S) IS THE WAA INDCD CLOUDS TRYING TO CREST OVR THE RDG. ATTM GIVEN (AT H5) THE 100M RISES WOULD THINK MOST OF THIS WILL BE ON THE THIN SIDE OR DISPT TRYING TO CREST IT. THUS MOS MIN TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE IF NOT A BIT TOO WARM...ESP S. ONCE OR TWICE A YEAR THE INVERSION IS SO STG INSPITE OF THE SUN THAT L/V WINDS DON/T MIX THE WRMR AIR DOWN AT ALL AND MAX TEMPS GO NOWHERE. WED MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS FOR VLY LOCATIONS BUT CONFID IS NOT THAT HIGH TO GO WELL BLO GUID. AS IT IS MAX TEMPS WE WILL FLW WILL BE ONLY ABT 5C ABV THE AFTN H8 TEMPS. MDLS AGN SUGG THERE MIGHT BE SOME MID/HI CLDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP MORE SO N THAN S. AGN RDGG CONTS DURG THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SKIES ON THE SUNNIER SIDE. && .LONG TERM (WED NGT THROUGH MON)... WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE 06Z GFS SOLN WHICH IS A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN VS THE SLOR 00Z GFS RUN AND THE FASTER 12Z GFS RUN. 06Z GFS SOLN IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLN WHICH HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT THAN EITHER THE UKMET OR GFS. WE HAVE NOT OPTED FOR THE QUICKER UKMET OR NOGAPS SOLN SINCE THE H5 FLOW IS POS TILTED AND THIS LENDS ITSELF TO A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLN. WED NGT S/B FAIR AND HAVE GONE BLO GUID BECAUSE OF EXCELLENT RDTNL COOLING CONDS AGN. OPMRF MOS WAS AT THE HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE ON THU AND WHL WE SHLD SEE A HEALTHY TEMP RISE GIVEN MORE MIXING...WE HAVE TRENDED BACK TWD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FULL SUN MACROS WHICH ARE CLOSER TO YDA/S MAX TEMPS. SLGTLY SLOR PROGRESSIONS KEYS ON CALENDAR DAY FRI NOW AS BEST CHCS FOR PCPN. ONCE AGN IT LOOKS LIKE PCPN MIGHT END OR MIX WITH SNOW B4 ENDING FAR NWRN ZNS. THE CHANGEOVER THICK AND THE PCPN ENDING IS ALMOST STACKED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. WAVY FNT COULD MAKE IT MORE RAIN THE SHRAS AND WE WILL FINE TUNE THIS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. SAT THRU MON STILL LOOK DRY WITH BLO NML TEMPS ON THE WEEKEND AND SOME MODERATION ON MON. 2NDRY CFP OVR THE WEEKEND APRS DRY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDINTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRATOCU DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET TODAY AND FORMING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH DIMISHING GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER DE BAY FOR 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADV FROM THE UPPER BAY THIS PACKAGE. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TONIGHT...AND WINDS MAY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LOWER BAY OCEAN DURING TUE. WAVES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT WITH HIGHER WAVES OFFSHORE. && .HYDROLOGY... NO RUNOFF PBLMS EXPECTED. QPF MAY GET A BIT HVYR ON FRI THAN WE THOUGHT YDA...BUT THE GULF IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPEN FOR BUSINESS AND OVERALL BASINWIDE STORM TOTALS SHLD BE LT 0.50. NEGLIGIBLE PCPN IS EXPECTED THE THE REST OF THE SEVEN DAY FCST PERIOD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT ZONES 70/71. NJ...FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT ZONES 12>14/16>27. MD...FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT ZONES 8/12/15/19/20. DE...FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CSTL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK IS DE. ANZ450>455. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...TFG AVIATION/MARINE...ZEV/IOVINO