182 
FXUS64 KFWD 091628 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 AM CST TUE NOV  9 2004

.PUBLIC UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS 24 HOUR SFC TEMP CHANGES AROUND 5 
DEGREES COOLER. WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...LOWER 70S SEEMS 
REASONABLE. WILL NOT UPDATE ZONES...BUT WILL UPDATE DIGITAL PRODUCTS 
AS SFC DEW POINTS NEEDED TO BE LOWERED. 80

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND SPEEDS WILL 
COME UP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN AGAIN AROUND 06Z TONIGHT.  
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT... MVFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER KACT AROUND 10Z... INTO THE 
KDFW TRACON AROUND 12Z.  75

&&

.DISCUSSION...
410 AM.
AFTER A WEEK OF PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SOME CHANGES ARE 
ON THE HORIZON.  THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW IS FINALLY OPENING UP AND 
LIFTING NORTHEAST.  FOR TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE 
AND THEY SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM 
YESTERDAY...EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO. BY 
TONIGHT... ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASING 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW 
THUNDERSTORM TO THE NORTHWEST SECTION. WILL KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY 
MORNING AND BRING COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF 
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  SINCE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...WILL KEEP POPS LOW ON 
THURSDAY.  WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND SOME POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LINGER. THEREFORE...MOST STATIONS 
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE 
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURE MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO FREEZING EARLY 
FRIDAY MORNING.  COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AND WINDS 
WILL DECREASE AND THIS WILL HELP A FEW MORE LOCATION TO REACH 
FREEZING BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND THIS 
SHOULD SLOW COOLING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP ALL LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST 
OF A BONHAM...DENTON...MINERAL WELLS...TO EASTLAND LINE ABOVE 
FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING.  

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW.  SLIGHT RAIN 
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND EXITING 
SYSTEM.   
  
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  55  73  57 /   0  10  20  20 
WACO, TX              75  55  77  58 /   0  10  20  20 
PARIS, TX             70  50  70  56 /   0  10  30  30 
DENTON, TX            71  54  73  53 /   0  10  20  20 
MCKINNEY, TX          71  54  73  56 /   0  10  20  20 
DALLAS, TX            72  55  73  57 /   0  10  20  20 
TERRELL, TX           73  54  73  57 /   0  10  30  30 
CORSICANA, TX         74  54  75  58 /   0  10  30  30 
TEMPLE, TX            75  55  77  59 /   0  10  20  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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