530 
FXUS63 KFGF 082030
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CST MON NOV 8 2004 

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL MAINLY WITH 
TEMPERATURES...THEN COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY 
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY 
MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED. WILL USE A BLEND FOR FORECAST.

TONIGHT...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED 
ALONG AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA (FA). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND 
OF MID-CLOUDS 150 MILES WIDE EXTENDING ALONG A LANGDON TO PARK 
RAPIDS LINE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CLOUD DECK HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO 
THE MID-30F RANGE...WITH TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUDS 
ABLE TO CLIMB WITH SOLAR. FOLLOWING 18Z ETA 850MB-700MB RH THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NE FA AT 06Z. 
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON CLOUD TRENDS...BUT WILL GO 
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THUS...VALUES WILL BE A 
BATTLE BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND 925MB-850MB WARM AIR 
ADVECTION. EXPECT A QUICK DROP AFTER SUNSET TO FORECASTED 
LOWS...WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 
WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

TUESDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES RISE 
INTO THE 8C-12C RANGE. SOME SUN IS EXPECTED...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS 
INDICATING MIXING TO AROUND 925MB AS VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES 
CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THIS LEVEL. MIXED OUT 925MB TEMPS 
FOR FORECASTED HIGHS. 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT TO PROPAGATE THROUGH DURING THE 
NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKY. STUCK WITH CURRENT 
FORECAST BUT ADJUSTED VALUES UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED DEW 
POINTS. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION...BEST FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO TAKE 
PLACE AFTER FRONT IS SOUTH OF FA...WHEN SOUTHERN SYSTEM PHASES WITH 
NORTHERN SYSTEM. ALSO...THIS IS WHEN COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO INTERACT 
WITH BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. WILL START A DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS 
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE KEEPING 30 POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL QUESTIONS 
ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS CHANCES 
REMAIN FOR FA. FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..AND 
HAVE TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL RAIN 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY RAIN WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS FOLLOWING 
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INCREASE...BUT WITH 850MB WINDS FORECASTED AROUND 
30KTS CURRENT FORECAST OF 20-30MPH WILL HOLD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS QUICKLY MOVES IN FOR 
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHIFTS OVER 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FLATTENS OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT A LOT OF 
MODEL CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES WHETHER FLOW 
WILL STAY MORE PROGRESSIVE (12Z RUN) OR CUT OUT A WEST COAST TROUGH 
OR LOW (00Z/06Z RUNS). AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY ON 
AND THEN BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE. IF ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE WEST 
COAST SO WOULD THE MAIN SFC REFLECTION. EITHER WAY...ATTM IT MEANS 
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLEST TEMPS WILL SHIFT EAST 
ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE. 
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
GRAFENAUER/GODON