632 
FXUS64 KLIX 041730 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
1125 AM CST THU NOV 4 2004

.UPDATE...
WILL BE UPDATING THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR 
TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS AND ETA 
925-900 MB RH FORECASTS INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ONLY BRUSH A 
FEW OF THE SOUTHERN MS ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE 
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING SHOULD SUFFICE FOR 
THESE CLOUDS AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK 
ABOUT RIGHT.

WINDS...ALTHOUGH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THE PRESENT TIME...
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB VORTICITY 
TROUGH IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DOWNWARD 
MOMENTUM OF COOL AIR OVER WARM WATER SHOULD MIX 25 KNOT WINDS DOWN 
TO THE WATER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THERE WILL 
LIKELY BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR A BIT HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO ANY TEMPS CURRENTLY BROADCAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. HAVE 
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND ADDED ABOUT 
36 HOURS OF GRIDS. 

COLD FRONT IS TAKING ITS TIME IN MOVING EASTWARD SHOWING WHAT LITTLE 
FORCING EXISTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL CHANGE 
QUITE RAPIDLY AROUND NOON TODAY. A STRONG DRY AIR SURGE WILL BREAK 
AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND RACE QUICKLY TO THE SE. THIS WILL 
FORCE THE COLD FRONT WELL INTO FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO MOVE 
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY 
FRIDAY WHICH IS WHY GUIDANCE NUMBERS DIP STRONGLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 
THIS CHUNK OF DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN VERY WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP 
AND AT 130AM WAS LOCATED FROM EXTREME SE MANITOBA CANADA TO EAST 
CENTRAL MONTANA. SO FOR THIS REASON CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEFT IN FOR 
A WHILE THIS MORNING. AFTER A CLEAR START IN MCB...WRAP AROUND 
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK IN AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
AFTERNOON.

MARINE AREAS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD OFFSHORE 
TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THIS REASON AND MAY 
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KPQL TO THE 
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60NM INCLUDING TIDAL LAKES.

&&

$$

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