000 
FXUS61 KBGM 010842
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 AM EST MON NOV 1 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY...COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION 
FEEDING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK INTO MICHIGAN. 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SLACKENING THE FLOW AND LOWERING THE 
INVERSION HEIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. FOR 
MOST OF CNTRL NY ZONES...ANY CLEARING WILL COME TOO LITTLE TOO LATE 
TO BE APPRECIATED AS DENSE CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER. WILL GO MORE 
PESSIMISTIC THAN CURRENT FCST AND CALL IT MOSTLY CLOUDY. CNTRL SRN 
TIER AND NE PA LIKELY TO BREAK OUT A FEW HOURS SOONER...ESPLY SOUTH 
OF I-84 AND I-80 SO THE DAY WILL BE A LITTLE BRIGHTER BUT ANY SUN  
FADES BEHIND THE CIRRUS THIS AFTN. SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE DID FORM 
DOWNWIND OF THE BIG LAKE AND WILL MENTION THIS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM 
SYR-UCA-COO EARLY...BUT ALL AREA SHOULD FINALLY BE DRY BY MID 
MORNING. 

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN 
STREAM FLOW AND RIDES UP A SW-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE 
MS VALLEY TO THE ERN GTLKS. ETA QPF SEEMED TO BETTER HANDLE THE AREA 
OF SHRA/TSRA INDUCED BY THE LLJ ACROSS WRN TN/KY OVERNIGHT SO WILL 
WEIGHT FCST CLOSER TO THAT SOLUTION...BUT BOTH GFS/ETA ARE IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT OVERALL. FOR THE MOST PART...BULK OF THIS WEATHER EVENT 
LOOKS TO BE AN ANA-COLD FRONTAL SITUTATION WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
WRAPPING BEHIND THE FRONT AND UNDER THE UPR JET. BGM CWA WILL BE IN 
THE RELATIVE COOL AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND COME UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF INCRG ISENT LIFT INDUCED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
TUES BEFORE EJECTING WAVE AND APCHG NRN STREAM TROF PUSH BOUNDARY 
...AND A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NY/PA DURG TUES AFTN AND 
EVE. OVERALL SENSE OF THE PREV FCST REMAINS INTACT...AND WE WILL 
MERELY FINE TUNE SOME TIMING AND TERMINOLOGY IN THE GRIDS/ZFP. WILL 
BRING A CHC OF SHRA OVERNIGHT...QUICKLY PROGRESSING TO NUMEROUS-OCNL 
SHOWERS FROM W-E TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF FRONT...AND THEN A 
STEADIER RAIN ALL AREAS BY MID-LATE AFTN WITH MSV-POCONOS LAST TO 
GET INTO THE ACTION. FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF I-81 AND SE OF 
I-88...TUES MORNING MAY BE HALFWAY DECENT...BUT DETERIORATE QUICKLY 
IN THE AFTN. MODEL TIMING PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT SYSTEM WILL 
PROGRESS EWD...THUS DRYING MUCH OF THE AREA OUT TWD MIDNIGHT 
WEDS...HOWEVER...BLUSTERY NW CAA FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO 
ABOUT 0C SHOULD KEEP SOME PATCHY DZ OR LGT RA GOING ALL NIGHT FROM 
SYR-UCA. 

FOR TEMPS...LEANED WITH MAV MOS TODAY-TUES AND THEN A BLEND OF 
MAV/MET INTO WEDS. TEMPS TOMORROW TRICKY AS WE REMAIN ON MILD SIDE 
OF APCHG SYSTEM. IF BULK OF RAIN KEEPS HOLDING BACK FURTHER INTO 
AFTN...COULD BE SOME BUSTS ON THE WARM SIDE THATS WHY WE LEANED A 
BIT MORE WITH MAV. -JAB

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...
NUDGED OUT THE CHC RAIN FOR EARLY WEDS...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT SOME 
LINGERING SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LK ONTARIO POSSIBLE VERY 
EARLY...THEN 
SFC RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. DISCREPANCIES IN 
MODELS ARISE GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH ETA/GFS NOW MOVING ANOTHER SRN 
STREAM LOW INTO THE REGION. THIS IS A NWWD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FROM 
PREVIOUS. DGEX RUN AND 00Z CAN SEF CONTINUE TO MAINLY SUPPRESS TO 
OUR SOUTH. WIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITY HERE...BUT FEEL WITH THESE 
NEW ETA/GFS RUNS MAKING A TANDEM MOVE TOWARD US...IT/S REASONABLE TO 
INDICATE A LOW CHC FOR SHRA LATE WEDS NITE AND THURS...MAINLY SOUTH 
OF THE NY BORDER FOR NOW. NRN STREAM TROF ARRIVES THURS NITE. FOR 
THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO 
DEEPEN OVER REGION WITH SEVERAL H5 SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC 
BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH LOW CHC 
POPS MOST AREAS AND EVEN MENTION SHSN DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 
-JAB/RRM

&&

.AVIATION (06Z MON TO 06Z TUE)...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE 
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISBYS AT KSYR AND KUCA DUE TO LAKE EFFECT 
RAIN SHOWERS. -JVA

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AMT EXPECTATIONS HAVE BACKED OFF WITH STORM TOTALS HALF INCH TO 
AN INCH AND LTL SIGNIFICANT REFLECTION ON AREA RIVERS IS ANTICIPATED.
-JAB

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

$$