171 
FXUS64 KLIX 240826
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
325 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT PULLS 
AWAY AND RIDGING ALOFT RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE GULF STATES. RADAR 
CURRENTLY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE 
LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER FROM GLOSTER TO MAGNOLIA AND S OF 
TYLERTOWN. OTHER MARINE LAYER SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS PLAQUEMINES 
PARISH AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE MODELS ALLUDE TO THIS 
ACTIVITY BUT IS OVERLY BROADBRUSHING THE AREAL EXTENT. WILL BE 
REDUCING POPS TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA 
TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL BE GOING WITH PERSISTENCE ON 
TEMPERTURES NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TAKES 
PLACE TO OFFSET THE ABOVE NORMAL EPISODE UNDERWAY. DEEP TROUGHING 
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST MAY BECOME A FACTOR IN OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT 
WEEKEND...BUT PATTERN WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CUT-OFF LOW REGIME NEAR 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL CAUSE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL RUNS. 

&&

.CLIMATE INFO...
THUSFAR OCTOBER HAS BEEN WARMER THAN NORMAL AND ON PACE TO SET THE 
HIGH MARK AS WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. THE WARMEST OCTOBER AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURE AT NEW ORLEANS IS 75.0 DEGREES SET IN 1927. THROUGH 23 
DAYS IN OCTOBER 2004...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT NEW ORLEANS IS 
75.9 DEGREES. AT BATON ROUGE...THE RECORD WARMEST OCTOBER WAS 1984 
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 73.5 DEGREES. THROUGH 23 DAYS IN 
OCTOBER 2004...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT BATON ROUGE IS 74.0 
DEGREES. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE WITH PERSISTENT WARMTH AND NO 
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH 
SHOULD ENSURE RECORD WARM OCTOBER STATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. 

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 84 69 84 68 / 20 20 20 10
BTR 85 70 85 69 / 20 20 20 10
MSY 85 74 85 73 / 20 20 20 10
GPT 82 72 82 70 / 20 20 20 10
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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