000 
FXUS62 KILM 240657
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR 
WEST. SURFACE OBS AND RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE MAINLY SCATTERED 
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH NO THUNDER. GFS/ETA CROSS SECTIONS ALSO 
SHOW VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO DO NOT BELIEVE QPF WILL BE MUCH OF A 
FACTOR TODAY. WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS AND WORDING FOR TODAY. 
GUIDANCE HAS PRECIP ENDING BY ABOUT 18Z. GFS HAS TRENDED MAX TEMPS 
FOR TODAY DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. 
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY A BIT BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS. WILL BE 
STICKING CLOSER TO THE ETA FOR TEMPS TODAY. NO POPS TONIGHT WITH 
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK OTHER THAN TWEAKING TEMPS A BIT IN LINE 
WITH THE LATEST GFSX. IN VIEW OF TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN LONG RANGE 
GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED CLIMATOLOGICALLY CORRECT SILENT 15 POPS FOR 
DAY 7 (SATURDAY) IN ANTICIPATION OF NEXT SYSTEM. MAINLY WEAK RIDGING 
WILL INFLUENCE WX UNTIL THEN...WHICH MAKES FOR A DRY FORECAST THRU 
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
    
SEAS AT 41001 AND 41004 CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WHAT LITTLE WIND 
WAVE COMPONENT THERE WAS KEEPS FADING AWAY...LEAVING NOTHING BUT THE 
NE SWELLS FROM THE W ATLANTIC LOW. LOWER SEAS AND LONG PERIODS 
GENERALLY MAKING FOR MORE FRIENDLY WATERS AND SCA WILL BE DROPPED 
DOWN TO SCEC FOR ALL ZONES.  SCEC CONDS MAY LAST FOR QUITE A WHILE 
THOUGH AS NE SWELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN 5 FT...AT LEAST CLOSE 
TO 20 NM FOR QUITE A WHILE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED WAVE MODEL 
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH DID HAVE TO TWEAK DOWN OUTER SEAS AS THEY WERE 
INITIALIZED TOO HIGH. WIND FCST NOT TOO EXCITING AS SFC TROUGH 
BUILDS IN TODAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH FOR 
QUITE A WHILE. 

&&

AVIATION...
LOWER CIGS...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 KFT ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST 
AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH. FLO HAS ALREADY BEEN IN AND OUT OF SUCH CLOUDS 
BUT REMAINING TERMS WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS...BRINGING 
LOWER CIGS IN DURING THE 8 TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. SHRA GENERALLY CLOSER 
TO 10Z FLO...12Z COASTAL TERMS TO START...16 TO 18Z TO END. DRY AIR 
TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING. 


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...REK
MARINE/AVIATION...MBB