000 FXUS63 KILX 112016 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 315 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2004 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RAIN SHIELD TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PRESS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN...MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-72 SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN THE NORTH. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER. TODAYS MODELS ARE PRETTY BULLISH ON THE POPS...WHICH LOOKS OK CONSIDERING CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DECREASING WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL DIVING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. THE STRONGER GFS IS PREFERRED HERE CONSIDERING THE JET THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THE STORM...ALTHOUGH SURFACE FEATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT MUCH DIFFERENT. WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY WILL BE AN IN-BETWEEN DAY. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST... ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL TEMPER THE COOLDOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER QUICK CLIPPER LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH MINOR QPFS. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES DICTATE ONLY CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND MOVES EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. CHANCE POPS MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONABLE POPS THIS FAR OUT TO SEE HOW THE RAIN SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEK PAN OUT. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. && $$ 04