000 FXUS63 KILX 031659 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 3 2004 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR A BIT WARMER HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER 70S AND INCREASED SW WINDS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH NORTH OF I-70. 1025-1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHED FROM PA SW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 999 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY SW ACROSS NW WI...SE PARTS OF MN AND NEBRASKA. SSW FLOW DEVELOPED ACROSS IL THIS MORNING AND THESE WINDS ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES AND VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE HELPING TEMPS WARM UP QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY 11 AM AFTER DAWN FROSTY TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES AND SW BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL HELPING TEMPS WARM BACK TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS. RUC SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SE IOWA AND FAR NW IL BY 03Z WHILE ETA BRINGS THE COLD FRONT SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER BY 06Z...TO I-70 BY 09Z AND NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE BY 12Z/MON. LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRONT TO WORK WITH AND STAYS DRY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BRINGS EVER COLDER AIR INTO IL MON AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING WITH LOWS FROM 27 TO 32 DEGREES BY DAWN TUE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE MORNING FROST ADVISORY...THEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH STATE TONIGHT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD HIGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...SHORT WAVE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TREND OF BEING VERY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT RANGE. UK, EUR, AND GFSLR APPEAR VERY SIMILAR ALSO IN THE LONG RANGE. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER AREA AS SEEN IN SURFACE DATA THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR SYSTEM SEEN MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE DATA...CANADIAN SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREAT LAKES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING NEXT COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INTO REGION. COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MORE SIGNIFICANT, SO HAVE LOWERED MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMP GRIDS TO NEAR 29 NORTH TO 35 SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKERS IN SOME AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AGAIN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SECOND HIGH CENTER AGAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FROST AGAIN. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF THIS TIME THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE. BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THE APPARENT WARM FRONTAL PRECIPTATION POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE IN GFSLR MOVES NORTHEAST FROM OK AND TRIGGERS APPARENT CHANCE OF RAIN. COLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES REACHED CONSENSUS THAT WILL STAY DRY IN EXTENDED PERIOD NOW WITH ONLY INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER CONSISTANT MODEL RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE ADD PRECIPITATION. AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY AND SO WILL TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO SATURATE THE AIRMASS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. && .CLIMATE... POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS ON TUESDAY ARE... PEORIA 31 SPRINGFIELD 31 LINCOLN 29 CHAMPAIGN 29 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. && $$ HUETTL/GOETSCH