000 FGUS74 KMAF 141801 ESFMAF NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317- 329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-211900- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004 ...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR ON SEPTEMBER 7TH INDICATED THAT MOISTURE OF RECENT WEEKS HAVE PLACED SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS INTO A FAVORABLY MOIST SPELL. CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT THE SECOND HALF OF SEPTEMBER SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TREND OF FAVORABLY MOIST CONDITIONS... SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED SOME DRYING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TIED OR BROKEN ON SEPTEMBER 7TH THROUGH THE 9TH. THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX IS A WEEKLY-ISSUED COMPILATION OF INDICES SHOWING LONG TERM RELATIVE DRYNESS OR WETNESS THAT AFFECTS WATER SENSITIVE ECONOMICS. THIS INDEX GIVES AN INDICATION OF PROLONGED AND/OR ABNORMAL MOISTURE DEFICIENCY OR EXCESS. THE U.S. DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FOR SEPTEMBER 11TH... NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN OF TEXAS. AN UNUSUAL MOIST SPELL FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU. A VERY MOIST SPELL FOR THE TRANSPECOS... THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWEST AND BIG BEND OF WESTERN TEXAS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS REPORTED FOR THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 8TH THROUGH THE 14TH ACROSS WEST TEXAS OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... OBSERVED FIRE DANGER CLASS AS OF SEPTEMBER 14TH... MODERATE FIRE DANGER IS INDICATED FOR THE WINDWARD MOUNTAINS AND THE LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. LOW FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MODERATE FIRE DANGER IS INDICATED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES...AS OF SEPTEMBER 13TH... 3-4 PERCENT WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE UPPER TRANSPECOS REGIONS. 5-6 PERCENT WAS INDICATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE PECOS RIVER. 7-8 PERCENT WAS INDICATED OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES...AS OF SEPTEMBER 13TH... 6-10 PERCENT FUEL MOISTURES WERE INDICATED MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH 11-15 PERCENT FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURES...AS OF SEPTEMBER 13TH 16-20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF WESTERN TEXAS. GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. 11-15 PERCENT WAS NOTED FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE CROP MOISTURE INDEX MONITORS SHORT TERM CROP NEEDS VERSUS AVAILABLE WATER IN THE 5 FOOT SOIL PROFILE. THE INDEX IS NOT USED FOR MONITORING EXTENDED DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE WEEKLY VALUE FOR PERIOD ENDING SEPTEMBER 11TH INDICATES SLIGHTLY DRY TO FAVORABL MOIST CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS... AREA LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW CAPACITY. LAKE LEVELS... NORMAL POOL % CONSERVATION POOL TDY CAPACITY JB THOMAS 2257.53 2219.4 -0.03 11 COLORADO CITY 2069.55 2062.9 -0.02 70 CHAMPION CREEK 2082.40 2037.8 -0.02 11 NATURAL DAM SALT 2449.60 2447.2 0.00 MOSS CREEK 2337.00 2333.3 -0.23 84 BRANTLY 3255.30 3238.9 -0.49 22 AVALON 3177.40 3173.1 -0.10 27 RED BLUFF 2842.00 2809.0 -0.10 22 OUTLOOK...THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER 2004 INDICATES NO CHANGE TO CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ACCESS THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES... WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV WWW.TEXASWATERINFO.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML $$