968 
FXUS62 KILM 061436
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1035 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
FAIRLY SOLID AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING MY COASTAL ZONES AS THE COASTAL 
TROF MOVES ONSHORE.  EMBEDDED TSRA HAVE PRODUCED SOME RESPECTABLE 
QPF OVER SOUTHEAST NC THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF 1-2 INCH 
RAINFALL PER 88-D ESTIMATES.   

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL BE MORE ON THAN OFF FOR THE REST 
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  HOWEVER TS ACTIVITY SHOULD 
JUST BE ISOLATED.  STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR RAIN TO SPREAD 
INLAND...AND CURRENT ZFP HAS A GOOD HANDLE THERE.  WILL UPDATE ZFP 
TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE COASTAL ZONES...BUMPING POPS TO CATEGORICAL 
AND CLIPPING A CATEGORY OFF THE MAX TEMPS.  GRIDS AND AFM/PFM WILL 
ALSO BE UPDATED TO REFLECT AN INCREASE IN QPF THRU MUCH OF THIS 
COASTAL TROF EVENT. 

&&

.MARINE...
COASTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY 
AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AT TIME AND 
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBY 
AT TIMES NEAR OR BELOW 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN. 

BUOYS REPORTING 7 TO 10 FT SEAS WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS AS 
WIND WAVE BECOMES DOMINANT ENERGY WAVE OVERCOMING ANY AFFECTS FROM  
RESIDUAL SWELL. FPSN7 ON THE E SIDE OF TROUGH...REPORTING A SE WIND 
OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN CONVECTION. WILL INCLUDE 
MENTION OF HIGHER WIND AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDER.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY IN PLACE. 

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HEAVIER 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE...WERE MOVING NORTH AND 
WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR ILM THIS MORNING 
EVIDENCED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF ILM...AND WITH 
NORTHEAST WINDS ILM VERSUS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL 
SOUTH CAROLINA. WILL INITIATE TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPO 
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z. 
AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE SOMEWHAT BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH 07/12Z...THUS PREDOMINATE 
MVFR CONDITIONS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN TAFS ALL TERMINALS 
06/18Z TO 07/12Z.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE. 
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO S SANTEE RIVER.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
MARINE...RJD
AVIATION...MRR