870 
FXUS66 KLOX 061002
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT MON SEP 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST STORY
FOR THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. SUNDAY WAS BRUTALLY HOT EVERYWHERE
ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES WHERE READING IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
WERE COMMON. 

00Z MODELS INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY...RELIEF FOR THE NEXT THREE 
DAYS. THICKNESSES DO NOT EXHIBIT ANY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT NEAR PERSISTENT TEMPS FOR INLAND 
AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS FOR COASTAL ZONES...THESE AREAS WILL BE 
AT THE WHIM OF THE GRADIENTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS NEXT THREE
DAYS (PRODUCING PLENTY OF FORECAST BUST POTENTIAL). CURRENT GRADIENTS 
SHOWS SOME VERY WEAK ONSHORE TRENDS. SO...EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING 
FOR COASTAL ZONES TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY OF 90+ READINGS TODAY. FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
RISE SLIGHTLY...BUT SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF ONSHORE
OR OFFSHORE TRENDS. THEREFORE...DEPENDING ON EXACT NATURE OF THE 
GRADIENTS...COULD HAVE SLIGHT WARMING OR MORE COOLING FOR COASTAL
AREAS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR NOW
WITH CAVEAT THAT ACTUAL TEMPS COULD BE VASTLY DIFFERENT THAN MY
CURRENT FORECAST.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE A NON-ISSUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
HOWARD DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS KEEP MARINE LAYER AT BAY.

ON THE FIRE WEATHER FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR FOOTHILL
AND MOUNTAIN LOCALES TODAY/TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE RED
FLAG WARNING CONTINUE TO BE A PRUDENT IDEA. 

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. SO...WILL EXPECT THE MARINE
LAYER TO RETURN AND TEMPS TO COOL OFF. A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE 
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).


&&

$$

THOMPSON