000 
FXUS64 KSHV 280733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE TX/SE OK BORDER THIS MORNING IN 
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN AHEAD OF MCS ONGOING ACROSS SW TX INTO
THE TX PHNDL. THIS ACTIVITY SLIDING DUE SOUTH INTO GOOD LOW LEVEL 
JET. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SE AS SEEN ON KTLX RADAR WILL HAVE
TO AWAIT INCREASING INSTABILITY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING 
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S KS THUS EXPECT FRONT TO KEEP COMING
AS FCST. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET HUNG UP AS THEY ALWAYS DO IN THE 
KIAMICHI MTNS OF SE OK...ALLOWING FOR MORE HEATING/INSTABILITY FOR 
BOUNDARY TO WORK WITH LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. EXPECTING A LITTLE 
MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THUS HAVE LEFT 
POPS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR AND 
CONVERGENCE ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY DECREASING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING...DONT THINK THINGS WILL GET TOO OUT OF HAND. 

HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR FOR SUNDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE MORE MORNING NEARER THE CORRIDOR. COUNTING ON
CLOUD COVER AND POPS KEEPING TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOLER THAN MOS TEMPS
MONDAY MORNING. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  72  87  68 /  50  60  40   0
MLU  91  72  86  65 /  50  60  50   0
TXK  92  71  87  66 /  60  60   0   0
TYR  90  71  87  67 /  50  60  40   0
LFK  92  73  87  69 /  50  60  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$