000 FXUS64 KCRP 021921 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 220 PM CDT MON AUG 2 2004 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SEABREEZE AS PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES PER GOES SOUNDER. UPPER HIGH CENTERED VAGUELY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT SW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...TANGENTIALLY BRINGING HEIGHT RISES AND NET SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA. EXPECT DIURNAL SEABREEZE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING OUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...EXPECT PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ZONE MENTION. && .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FAVORABLE FLANK OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE(DELINEATED BY 700HPA TROUGH AXIS) GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT ENCOUNTERS NEGATIVE OPPOSITION IN THE FORM OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500HPA ANTICYCLONE. NOCTURNAL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND/OR LOW-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ACT UPON MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS(EXCEPT THE FAR WEST). LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG PROBABLE IN A STABILIZED/DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME. SUBTLE VARIATIONS AROUND PERSISTENCE WILL BE APPLIED TO TEMPERATURES. 500HPA ANTICYCLONE POSITION VACILLATES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONALLY EXPOSING THE REGION TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LESS INHIBITIVE SUBSIDENCE. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE GENERALLY AT MARGINAL LEVELS BUT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES/DECOUPLES ADEQUATELY FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED LOCALES. OSCILLATORY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BRING MARGINAL DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL SCEC CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GEARED TOWARD PERSISTENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 74 95 77 94 76 / 10 10 05 20 10 VICTORIA 74 98 74 95 75 / 10 10 05 10 05 LAREDO 79 102 78 102 80 / 10 05 05 05 05 ALICE 74 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 05 10 05 ROCKPORT 78 91 79 91 80 / 20 10 05 20 10 COTULLA 75 99 75 97 76 / 10 05 05 05 05 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 71/SHORT-TERM 85/LONG-TERM