000 FXUS61 KCLE 310146 AAA AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 945 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004 .UPDATED SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)... FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVG ACRS NE OH INTO NW PA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WERE ROTATING IN ERIE/LORAIN COUNTIES PROBABLY MAINLY DUE TO ENHANCEMENT CROSSING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDRY. SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVG NE OUT OF LWR OH VLY ACTING ALMOST LIKE A WARM FNT WITH LOW LVL FLOW STILL SSE AND FLOW ALOFT SW. HELICITY INCREASING ACRS FCST AREA AND WL HAVE TO CONT TO MONITOR ANY STORMS BUT ATMOSPHERE ALREADY RAIN COOLED AND SHOULD BE LESS CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS AS WE WORK THRU THE NGT ALTHOUGH LOW LVL JET ON 00Z ILN SOUNDING WL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMP FCST LOOKS OK. ADJUSTED WINDS AND ADJUSTED SOME WORDING ON ZONE FCST. NO MAJOR CHANGE TO GRID GRAPHICS. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. KOSARIK && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS (ISSUED AT 327 PM)... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY)... THE REGION IS IN A MOIST SW FLOW WITH SCATTERED STRONGER CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW AT THIS TIME. CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO 1000-2000J/KG OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE WRN HALF IS FAIRLY STABLE. DEEP SFC TO 6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 30 KTS EAST OF CLE WHILE SHEAR NR 35 KTS PREVAIL OVER THE W. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT THE LOW SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE. CAT POPS FOR TNGT SEEM REASONABLE AS A SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SAT MORNING WITH SHARP DRYING BEHIND IT. WL DROP THE CHANCE OF PCPN NEAR TOL SAT AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION SAT EVE AND PERSIST INTO SUN. && .LONG TERM (MON THRU FRI)... VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH DEWPOINT AIRMASS ADVECTS EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... SCT SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS THIS MRNG HAD EXITED THE CWA AND MOVD OFF TO THE NE. A FEW SCT SHRA RMN OVR THE STA WI CIGS/VSBYS LIFTING. ISENT LIFT ASSOCD WI THE WK WRMFNTAL BNDRY ACRS SRN OH ALG WI THE LOW PRES TO THE SW AND THE APCHG CDFNT FROM THE NW WL PROVDE ENUF UPR DYNMCS FOR A PD OF SHWRS/TSTMS TNGT AND INTO SAT MRNG THESE SYS WL MOV E DURG THE DAY SAT AS A NEW AMS BHND THE CDFNTL PASS FILTERS IN. CIGS/VSBYS TO LWR DURG THE OVRNGT THEN LIFT AFT THE CDFNTL PASS WI THE CHANGING AMS LATE IN THE MRNG. CLRG TO BEGIN OVR THE NW PTNS LATE SAT MRNG. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ UPDATED SHORT TERM...KOSARIK SHORT TERM...RL LONG TERM...RL AVIATION...SM