000 
FXUS65 KLKN 130930
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NEVADA TODAY...THEN SPREAD FURTHER WEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME. DPI PWS SHOWING ONLY .3 OVER NORTHERN NYE WITH ZEROES IN
THE NORTH. MONSOON MOISTURE IS COMING AS EVIDENCED BY NEAR 1.00
INCH NEAR THE NV/AZ STATE LINE. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON IR
IMAGERY OVER WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES...BUT OTHERWISE
PRETTY MUCH CLR. SEEING SOME INCREASE IN 700 AND 500 MB WINDS IN NRN
NYE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL ISSUE RFW FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
457 FOR WIND GUSTS TO OVER 30 MPH AND LOW HUMIDITIES. SOME MONSOON
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT GFS MDL SOUNDINGS...ANY CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AND THE DRY TSTM TYPE. BETTER SURGE
TAKES PLACE WEDS AFTN WITH PWS AT ELY TO .91 AND EKO UP TO .60. STILL
ONLY WENT SLT CHC ON POPS WEDS AFTN AS LIS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE
MOST PART. FORECAST AREA DESTABILIZES THURSDAY AFTN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS WESTWARD AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL STORM
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA STARTS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE. BEST CHANCE
FOR POPS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOT DO MUCH
WITH THE EXTENDED AS GFS BECOMES CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED...SO FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS. MRF SHOWING QPFS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WOULD LEAN TOWARDS BEEFING UP POPS MORE.
WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN TO UP POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...ZONE 457
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND LOW HUMIDITIES.
&&

$$

CLAYCOMB