000 FXUS62 KILM 130722 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 325 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... A FEW SHOWERS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA AT TIME. INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TODAY. INITIATION/FOCUSING MECHANISMS INCLUDE LEE SIDE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART WENT WITH PERSISTENCE TODAY. INCLUDED 100 TO 105 DEG HEAT INDICES IN BODY OF FORECAST AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. EXPECT EVENING CONVECTION TO WANE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON WEDNESDAY...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH LIS OF -6 TO -8 AND CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH A W TO SW FLOW RIGHT AHEAD OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. I INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND GIVEN DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WIND DAMAGE REPORTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSE TO 105 ON WEDNESDAY...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SHOULD THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY AID IN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING LATER INTO THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... IT DOES DRY OUT SOME FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND...BUT I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP POPS BELOW THRESHOLD GIVEN PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY. DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD QUICKLY RESPOND TO JULY SUNSHINE...AND WENT ABOVE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR THAT REASON. POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL COMFORTABLE KEEPING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AND SUNSHINE...SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS LOOKS AS THOUGH FRONT WILL BUCKLE AND BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH. FOR THIS REASON...PREVIOUS MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN. EAST COAST TROUGHINESS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS TROUGH SHARPENS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE FOR TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BR THIS MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE. ALONG THE COAST MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THEN BR DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN STORE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEING THE FOCUS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY INLAND MAY MOVE IN AFTER 18Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... CURRENTLY AT 41013...WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 3.5 FEET. WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST IS WILL THE COASTAL WATERS SEE SMALL CRAFT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 00Z MESO-ETA AND GFS MODEL SHOWING 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BEST OVER THE WATERS. 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER EDGE OF COASTAL WATERS AT 03Z ON THE 15TH. AT THIS TIME WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...RJD AVIATION...DRH MARINE...DRH