000 
FXUS63 KICT 062031
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN TAKES OVER.

TONIGHT:
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WORKING 
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ITS WAY 
INTO SOUTHWEST MO. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE THE DIURNAL CUMULUS 
CLOUDS GO AWAY. OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR 
ADVECTION TRYING TO MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE LOW 
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO CRANK UP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING 
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY 
SET OFF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS A DECENT INFLECTION 
POINT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS TAKING PLACE AROUND 315K. MAIN 
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS. UPPER 
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ADEQUATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN WEST TEXAS, SO 
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 
06Z. WE WENT AHEAD AND INSERTED POPS. 

TOMORROW:
SOME OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 15Z AS 
THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND CAP BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA  SHOULD 
ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM THAT MUCH SINCE 
GROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WE WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ON 
CURRENT TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
MAY ACTUALLY GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE CWFA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED AT 
310-315K LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MORE LIFT. ELEVATED CAPES WILL BE 
ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000J/KG, BUT THE SHEAR PROFILE LOOKS TO BE 
FAIRLY WEAK. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER.

THURSDAY-MONDAY:
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A ZONAL 
PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE 
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS STEERING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, 
WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CAP AND THE DRY LINE OUT WEST 
WHICH MAY SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A 
RESULT, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRY OUT WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. 
WE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP TO REFLECT THIS. WE MAY SEE A STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL TROF INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT. 
OTHERWISE, CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.  

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  87  69  92 /  10  10  30  10
HUTCHINSON      62  87  69  93 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          62  86  69  92 /  10  10  30  10
ELDORADO        63  85  69  92 /  10  10  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  86  70  92 /  10  10  30  20
RUSSELL         59  87  68  95 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      59  87  68  95 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          61  88  69  92 /  10  10  30  10
MCPHERSON       62  86  69  92 /  20  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  84  69  90 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         63  84  68  90 /  10  10  30  30
IOLA            63  84  68  90 /  10  10  30  30
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
18/COX