000 FXUS65 KTFX 051420 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MONTANA 820 AM MDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... TODAY...UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED BY 930...CONTINUED CAA ALOFT WILL CAUSE ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA CONTINUES TO CAUSE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/SASK IS MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE AFFECTING THE ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ZELZER && .PREV DISCUSSION... A BIT CALMER WEATHER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE THINGS GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE. FOR TODAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND UP INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO EXIT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...WITH A WARMING TREND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH GOOD DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT COOLER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH PRECIP LIKELY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 7000 FEET...AND THIS IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY AS WELL. BRUSDA THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT MAY INHIBIT PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW PASSES OVER WITH READINGS WARMING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF EB 065/050 079/053 072 99200 BBBUU 047/067 047/074 051/081 054/084 055 03332000000 CTB BB 063/047 075/051 071 99100 EBBUU 045/064 047/071 050/078 053/081 054 03332000000 HLN EB 073/052 081/056 076 99400 BBBUU 051/071 048/076 055/083 055/086 056 -4432000000 BZN EB 070/044 077/050 078 99400 BBBBU 046/070 047/075 051/082 052/085 053 03322100000 WEY BB 062/035 069/041 070 99200 BBBBU 042/065 042/068 043/074 046/077 047 03222100000 DLN BB 072/045 079/050 072 99000 BBBBU 047/069 047/074 050/081 051/084 052 13322-00000 HVR EB 067/050 081/055 074 99200 BBBUU 049/068 049/075 054/082 056/086 057 03332000000 LWT WB 063/049 075/052 079 99500 BBBUU 046/068 048/073 051/080 054/083 055 04432-00000 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$