000 
FXUS63 KABR 012010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
313 PM CDT THU JUL 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN CHCS...WHERE AND 
TIMING. 

SFC BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH DAY AS A WARM 
FRONT...WITH GOOD DWPT INCREASE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL ERLY 
FLOW ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH VEERING FOR CELLS TO 
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE. DYNAMICS ALOFT STILL REMAIN WEAK WITH 
5H RIDGE STILL MOVING OVER CWA...SO SEVERE THREAT NOT ALL THAT 
GREAT. HOWEVER...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 ALONG THE 
NODAK/SODAK BORDER BY 00Z TNT. 7H THETA-E AND 85H THETA-E RIDGES ALL 
POINT TO CONVECTION ALONG WRN DAKOTAS...AND ALONG THE NODAK/SODAK 
BORDER. STORM MOTION IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS SAME 
AS YESTERDAY. REPORTS FROM STORMS YESTERDAY VARY FROM 2 TO AS HIGH A 
5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STORMS. SAME AIRMASS HAS MOVED NORTH. WILL 
GO WITH SCT TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG NRN COUNTIES...WITH WDLY SCT 
TSRA FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE FORCING IS MUCH WEAKER. 

BY FRIDAY BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF CWA...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT 
STILL POSITIONED WEST OF CWA. H85 AND H7 TROFS ALSO STAY POSITIONED 
WEST OF CWA THROUGH DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY STANDS TO BE A WARM AND MUGGY 
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WITH DWPTS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO 
THE MID 60S. PCPN WISE...DONT THINK PCPN A THREAT UNTIL EARLY AFTN 
ACROSS THE WEST...WHEN SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROFS BEGIN TO 
SLOWLY MOVE EAST. BY 00Z SAT...CHC TSRA WARRANTED ACROSS ALL CWA. 
PWATS ARE STILL ELEVATED...AND HEAVY RAIN AGAIN PSBL. 
HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS A BIT BETTER FOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STORMS 
SHOULDNT REMAIN IN SAME AREA AS THEY TEND TO DO NOW. 

COLD FRONT EXITS ERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT H85 TEMPS DONT 
REALLY SHOW A FALL UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY. FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF SOUTH OF 
CWA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE IN. THIS SHOULD HELP TO 
KEEP CWA DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN...WHEN BOUNDARY RETURNS BACK 
THROUGH CWA. THETA-E RIDGES ARENT THE BEST SUNDAY 
AFTN/EVENING...WITH WITH BETTER DYNAMICS THAT ARE CURRENTLY GOING 
ON...WITH HIGH PWATS STILL IN PLACE...CHC TSRA SPREADING FROM WEST 
TO EAST ACROSS CWA STILL WARRANTED. 

.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN JET TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THROUGH THE EXTENDED 
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL 
BEGIN WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE 
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH THEN TRAVELS EAST 
ACROSS THE BORDER OF US/CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT 
A FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR -TRW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
STATE. LOOK TO HAVE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA NOT 
ONLY FROM THE THERMAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO FROM THE LEFT-EXIT REGION 
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK IN PLACE. FRONT LOOKS RATHER STRONG WITH H85 
TEMPS FALLING FROM THE MID TEENS EARLY MONDAY TO AROUND 6C ON 12Z 
TUESDAY. WITH THE PRECIPITATION...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING LOW 
LEVEL TEMPS...HAVE DECREASED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS COOL AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
AT THIS MOMENT. WILL THEN SEE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE LATE TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE 
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE 
APPROACHES THE CWA. GFS SHOWS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT PUSHING 
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND 
CONTINUED -TRW CHANCE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SYSTEM THEN 
PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
HINTZ/ALBRECHT