712 FXUS63 KILX 290239 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 935 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 .DISCUSSION... HI PRSS RIDGE MOVING INTO AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. THEREFORE...NO NEED TO UPDATE FCST AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE LATEST REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR IS FILTERING INTO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS OF EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED INTO A SCATTERED STRATUCU DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS... TEMPERATURES WILL GET FAIRLY COOL OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S LOOK REASONABLE. SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IS SLATED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS THE REGION AND ALLOWS THE MOISTURE POOLING OVER TEXAS TO COME NORTHEASTWARD. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... TIMING WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. OTHER THAN A FEW SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION RETURNING LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH...BUT POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR NOW. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SHOWERS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY...BUT UNTIL THE MODELS CHANGE THEIR TUNE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY BUT CLOUDY FORECAST. ONE DIFFERENCE IN THE NEWER MODELS IS THAT THE 12Z GFS BRINGS IN QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WONT GO QUITE THAT COOL YET SINCE ITS DAY7 AND THERE IS STILL TIME TO MONITOR A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO SEE OF THIS TREND CONTINUES. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. && $$ AUTEN/04