374 FXUS64 KCRP 280832 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 330 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TSRA AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SERIES OF VORT MAXIMA ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE SEA-BREEZE IS ANOTHER STORY HOWEVER. GFS/ETA ARE PROGGING PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES AGAIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GOES SOUNDER AS WELL. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SEA-BREEZE FRONT TO PENETRATE WELL INTO THE INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS WARRANTS CHANCE POPS FROM VICTORIA...TO BEEVILLE...TO ALICE. POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT ARE STILL QUITE TRICKY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BUT THE TIMING IS NOT CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ETA. ETA IS MOVING THE FEATURE IN A BIT FASTER AND THE POPS IN THE ETAMOS CORRESPOND NICELY. THINK THAT THESE ARE OVERDONE AND BIT AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE MAV POPS. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OUT WEST AND SLGT CHANCE ELSEWHERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL WORK TOGETHER. SHOULD SEE THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE ON TUESDAY FOR THIS REASON. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. FORESEE NO PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WINDS COME DOWN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. && .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO EASTERN TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS WITHIN THE S/W RIDGE OVER WESTERN TEXAS BY LATE MONDAY...THEN DEEPEN THE FEATURE SLIGHTLY AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY. ETA CONTINUES TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD PRECIP ON WED AFTN AND KEEPING UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PART OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS/CANADIAN ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AND ECMWF/NOGAPS MOVES THE FEATURE ACROSS RATHER QUICKLY. GIVEN RECENT WET/COOL BIAS OF THE ETA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER/FASTER GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. NONETHELESS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. DO EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEA BREEZE HELPING AS A FOCUS. MOISTURE/UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OUT WEST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. NO PROBLEMS OVER THE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 90 75 91 75 90 / 20 20 30 10 30 VICTORIA 90 74 89 73 91 / 30 20 40 20 40 LAREDO 100 77 98 77 98 / 20 30 30 40 30 ALICE 94 74 94 73 93 / 30 20 40 20 40 ROCKPORT 89 77 90 78 89 / 20 20 30 10 30 COTULLA 96 74 94 73 95 / 20 30 30 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 94/MJ...SHORT-TERM 91/JD...LONG-TERM