492 FXUS64 KCRP 280131 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 830 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 .UPDATE... CRP 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A MORE STABLE AND LESS MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAN PREVIOUS 24 HRS. TSRA ACTIVITY IS REMAINING TO THE N AND ACROSS MEX W TO SW OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW WEAK ECHOES OVER THE FAR W CWA. DO NOT FEEL THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT E OR NE CWA TONIGHT DUE TO SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPING STORMS MAINLY OVER MEX WITH A FEW ENTERING THE W ZONES. ALSO...TSRAS SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING TSRAS FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS FOR RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND TRANSPARENT 10 POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECAST LOOK GOOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL WE SHOULD BE ALOT LESS ACTIVE DURING THIS FCST PD. THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...CLOSER TO THE LINGERING SHEAR AXIS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE STATE SINCE LAST WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS MID/UPR RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TX. PWS WL REMAIN AT MARGINAL LVLS FOR CONVECTION...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THIS IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. A WK CAP NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WL LINGER THROUGH THE PD AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A REAL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS WL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-30% RANGE. THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WL BE THE ONLY TRIGGERS WE WL BE DEALING WITH THROUGH THIS FCST PD. THE WET SOILS WL LKLY KEEP HIGHS A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN KEEPING A MID-UPR LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GULF FROM THE EAST. THE POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING PW TO INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE TUE. HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY ON THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SCT POPS TUE AND WED WITH THE SEA BREEZE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME INFLUENCE FROM OUTFLOWS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK/STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN TEXAS. THE ETA IS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER EAST W/ THE UPR TROUGH THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND SUBSEQUENTLY IT SHOWS MAJOR QPF BULLS EYE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TUE AND WED. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS MUCH MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. THINK THE ETA IS OVERDONE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SOLN (GFS COMPROMISE)...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS SHOULD THIS ALL VERIFY. ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AND HIGHEST QPF ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH LESSER COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OFFSHORE...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 EACH DAY. NOTE THAT THESE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN LATEST MAV AND MET GUIDANCE ATTM. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING AND DRIER AIR TAKING HOLD THURS AND ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT GFS SHOWS PWS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.6 INCHES MOST AREAS BY FRI. WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THU WITH NO RAIN MENTION FRI AND BEYOND...ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLD SEA BREEZE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL WARM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO IN THE EAST...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS EXPERIENCE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 91 75 90 74 / 20 20 10 30 10 VICTORIA 75 90 74 90 73 / 20 30 20 40 20 LAREDO 77 100 77 96 76 / 20 20 20 30 40 ALICE 75 94 74 93 73 / 20 30 20 40 20 ROCKPORT 78 89 77 89 78 / 10 20 10 30 10 COTULLA 74 95 74 94 73 / 20 20 20 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ UPDATE TE/81 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MB/80...SHORT-TERM MJG/88...LONG-TERM