555 
FXUS64 KBMX 152023
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  STARTING FRIDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW/FRONT TO THE WEST.  GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.  PW/S WILL REMAIN
HIGH...OVER TWO INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...AND THEN CHANCE
POPS ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BEING
OVER TWO AND HALF INCHES FOR THE ONE HOUR TO UP TO FIVE INCHES
FOR THE SIX HOUR DON/T EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS.

MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY THUS THE AREA SHOULD DRY OUT A
BIT AS THE FRONT TO THE WEST WASHES OUT AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
A BIT MORE DOMINATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
BACK TO A TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS AND HPC ANALYSIS HINTS AT A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE NORTH AND MEANDERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

BIRMINGHAM 72 86 72 87 72 / 30 50 30 40
MONTGOMERY 72 87 73 90 73 / 40 60 30 30
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

80