008 
FXUS63 KLBF 101924
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004

...FORECAST FOCUS IS SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TAKING SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY EVIDENT FROM NEAR CDR NE TO AKO CO. SFC LOW 
FCST TO DEEPEN IN EXTREME SW NEBR. 18Z SOUNDING REVEALS PWS OF 1.24 
INCHES...NEAR 2500 J/KG CAPE AND VERY WEAK CAP. BEST CONVERGENCE 
SHOULD BE ACROSS KEITH TO LOGAN COUNTY THEN NORTHEAST TO ONL AS THE 
EVENING PROGRESSES. NOT ONLY WILL LG HAIL AND DMG WNDS BE 
PSBL...HEAVY RAIN ALSO LIKELY. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL FAVOR 
EXISTING BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL 
HEATING THIS AFTN. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL 
NEBR AS WELL AS NRN CUSTER...BLAINE...LOUP ...GARFIELD AND WHEELER. 
WITH THESE AREAS NOT PRONE FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT BE ISSUING 
FFA AS 3 HR FFG VALUES ARE IN GENERAL AOA 2 INCHES.  

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST OF FA FOR FRIDAY WITH A 
DRY DAY ON TAP. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING WILL 
OCCUR TEMPS SEASONAL FROM NEAR 80 NW TO NEAR 85 SE. 

SFC LOW REDEVELOPMENT IN WRN KS SAT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. 
BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE KEYING IN ON STRONG CONVECTION FROM NC KS 
INTO SERN NEBR LATE AFTN WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC IN WRN NEBR. MCS 
FCST TO CONGEAL IN SERN NEBR OVERNIGHT.  

STILL A SLIGHT CHC SUN AFTN/SUNDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPLUSES 
MOVE THROUGH FAST ZONAL FLOW. HIGH TEMPS COOL A BIT TO UPPER 70S TO 
NEAR 80. 


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...GFS TRANSITIONS INTO NW FLOW BY THU. THIS 
SCENARIO LOOKS UNLIKELY AS THE CANADIAN/ECMWF HOLD ONTO ZONAL FLOW 
OR SLIGHT RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. WILL KEEP DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 DRY 
AND WARMER THAN GFS WOULD SUGGEST. 

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

ROBERG