989 
FXUS64 KEWX 301639 AAA
AFDSAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.UPDATE...DRYLINE INTO OUR NW COUNTIES AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...CAPES IN
THE 2500-3000+ RANGE.  FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND OUR NE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.  THANKFULLY, HELICITY QUITE LOW...SO PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS INDICATED IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IN ACCORD WITH SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA.  BOOSTED TEMPS OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRIER
AIR MASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING ONSHORE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. DRYLINE STILL INDICATED OVER WESTERN TEXAS EXTENDING
FROM THE BIG BEND NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE. DEW-POINT BEHIND THE
DRYLINE IN THE 20S AND 30S COMPARED TO THE 70S OVER THE COASTAL AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAVE MOVED NORTH WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THIS WEATHER MAY FILTER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS INDICATED BY GFS AND ETA.

BY MIDDAY TODAY...SUBSIDENCE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE HIGHER.

MODELS DEVELOP A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS MOVE THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF FURTHER EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE AND/OR COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
THREE DIGIT READINGS.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06