420 
FXUS63 KILX 232009
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS 
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OVER THE WEST...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL 
UNDERWAY AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH 
MOST OF THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS HAS EXITED INTO INDIANA...NEW 
DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN MISSOURI. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE... 
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. WILL GO 
CATEGORICAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT 
MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER SOME 
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER THE EAST FOR A WHILE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...PROVIDING A 
BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER 
ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT 
SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE 
RETURN TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. WILL GO WITH 
LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THIS IN MIND. THE FRONT 
WILL THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ONCE AGAIN...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN TO OUR SOUTH DURING 
MIDWEEK. THE LONG RANGE GFS STILL SEEMS TO BRING OUT THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW TOO FAST AND IT IS SLOWING THINGS DOWN 
RUN-BY-RUN. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST 
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE ELSE UNTIL FRIDAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

$$
04