276 
FXUS63 KILX 242007
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SITUATION AND RESULTING 
WX EXPECTED ACRS CWA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. WESTERN PART OF CWA IS IN A 
HIGH RISK WITH A MODERATE AND SLIGHT RISK THROUGHOUT THE REST OF 
CWA...EXCEPT FOR SERN TWO COUNTIES. MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS 
TIMING OF SVR WX TONIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SITUATION IS STILL COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX FOR TONIGHT. WARM 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO BACK INTO SERN NEB WITH DEWPOINTS TO 
AROUND 70/LIS BETTER THAN -10/CAPES AROUND 5000 J/KG. STRONG LLJ 
ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM FRONT WHERE ONE STORM 
HAS DEVELOPED IN SERN NEB. EXPECTED EVOLUTION WILL BE FOR SUPERCELSS 
TO MERGE INTO A LINEAR/BOWECHO...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ETA AND 
GFS SVR PARAMETERS AND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS. THE WRF 
MODEL FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT ALSO PREDICTS THIS TYPE OF EVOLUTION. PW 
VALUES ACRS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES FOR 
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW...SO WILL ISSUE A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH 
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. 

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTH BY EARLY MORNING. THEN A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. CWA IS IN SLIGHT RISK 
AGAIN...HOWEVER INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION...DEPENDING ON RESULTS OF 
THE SVR WX FOR TONIGHT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW AND 
TOMORROW NIGHT. 

FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES THROUGH TOM NIGHT AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BY 
WED MORNING. CWA WILL BE DRY WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP 
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN SERN CWA TO BLEND WITH CHC POPS IN PAH AREA. 

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BRIEF HIGH PRSS WILL BE IN THE AREA FOR THUR...SO WILL KEEP AREA 
DRY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL STAY OUT WEST WITH WEAK RIDGING 
IN THE PLAINS. ONE WAVE MOVES OUT FROM THE SW US AND MOVES INTO THE 
AREA FOR FRI...AS A WARM FRONT ON THE SFC. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE WILL 
KEEP CHC POPS ACRS CWA FOR FRI THROUGH MONDAY. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

&&

$$

AUTEN