731 
FXUS63 KLBF 230744
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
244 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

...FORECAST CONCERNS POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTH THEN TEMPERATURES...

.NEAR TERM...MCS HAS MOVED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MOST OF THE SHRA
AND TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
PRECIP IN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTY.

MUCH QUIETER DAY IN STORE TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW
TORNADOES HAVE AFFECTED CENTRAL NEBRASKA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY
BUT WSW FLOW WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION. AT H7 A WEAK WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND AT THE SFC ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A
SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SOME LIGHT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH
OF HWY 20.

ANOTHER QUIET DAY FOR MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WILL DIG...DEEPEN...AND SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE LATE
MONDAY AND SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING NW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. MUCH COOLER DAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL ALSO BE
BELOW NORMAL BUT BY WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WEAK
RIDGING TAKES PLACE ONCE AGAIN. H85 TEMPS ON THURSDAY APPROACH 23C
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...THIS BROUGHT
DOWN TO THE SFC IS AROUND 88F BUT WILL ONLY RAISE TEMPS THURSDAY A
FEW DEGREES TO NOT MAKE TOO BIG OF A JUMP FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST MOVES INTO THE
FOUR CORNER REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR
SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND SW FLOW SETS UP AGAIN...BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON TSRA FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL TRY TO SET UP DIURNAL TSRA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO TIME UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND DIE
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...H5 HAND ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW OVER WITH A WEAK SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY SLOPED RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WSW FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. WV SHOWERS VERY DRY AIR OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL STORM AGATHA IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DYING. INTERESTING TO LOOK AT WV OVER THE LAST 4
DAYS. AT LEAST 8 MCS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED ALONG THE STATIONARY
SFC FRONT THAT HAS SAT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CAB