943 FXUS62 KCHS 281134 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 733 AM EDT WED APR 28 2004 730 AM MARINE UPDATE... SUNRISE SURGE GOING STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN MOST OF OUR WATERS. UPDATED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO RAISE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED CONDITIONS AND UPDATE SEA HEIGHTS IN OUR GEORGIA WATERS. && .SHORT TERM... WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF MAINLY CLEAR DAYS TODAY AND THURSDAY. DRY FRONT WILL BE THRU THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING THE SEA BREEZE FRONT A LITTLE PUSH DURING THE MID AFTN HOURS. PREVIOUS TEMP SCHEME WILL BE PRESERVED AND THE NEXT CLOUDS SHOULD BE OF THE HIGH THIN VARIETY ON THU. WILL MAKE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO ONSHORE BREEZES NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN. THE GFS SHOWS THE MID LVL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON FRI WITH A MYRIAD OF SHORT WAVES IN BACKING FLOW ACROSS THE SE STATES. TIMING STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES TOO TRICKY TO BASE ANY EFFECTS IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. SINCE BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A BIG INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SRN GEORGIA ON FRI...WILL EXPAND POPS TO MUCH OF OUR SRN ZONES...BUT LEAVE S CAROLINA DRY AS A STRONG MOIST GRADIENT LOOKS TO SETUP. && .LONG TERM... THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER FLOW. ON SAT...VERY JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE LIFTING N AND A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. IT LOOKS INTERESTING THIS FAR OUT...WILL JUST WAIT AND SEE IF THINGS COME TOGETHER FOR SOME STRONG CONVECTION. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A FULL WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE IF RAIN CHCS LINGER ON MONDAY OR EVEN INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE HUNG-UP FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER... FORECASTING SOME 25 TO 30 PCNT RH VALUES INLAND THIS AFTN BUT YSTDYS RNFL SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS TODAY. && .MARINE... AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WILL SEE A SURGE OF WINDS AS HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT PINCHES. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE HIGH EXITS. FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE SE THEN S AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SUBDUED. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURGE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OFFSHORE GA WATERS SHOULD EASILY REACH 5 FT WITH WINDS OF 20 KT AS THE SURGE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL THE SURGE BE WITHIN 20 NM OFF THE SC COAST. SEAS COULD BUILDING TO 5 FT FOR A SHORT TIME JUST BEHIND THE SURGE...SO WILL CONTINUE SCEC. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ 24/JR