071 
FXUS61 KBGM 190634
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 AM EDT MON APR 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WMFNT HAS YET TO PASS THE WRN CATSKILLS AND FAR NE ZONES, BUT SHUD 
DO SO EARLY THIS MRNG. VERY MILD TEMPS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXECPTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TDA. SVR WX PARAMS NOT NEARLY AS 
IMPRSV AS YDA. THE MOST IMPRSV FEATURE TDA APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG 
SYNOPTIC WIND FIELD. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES FOR ELM 
INDICATE POTNL FOR GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS TDA, BUT THOSE APPEAR OVERDONE 
AS THE ALGORITHM IS MIXING DOWN FROM 750 MB. DEBATED BACK AND FORTH 
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS CONCERNING A WIND ADVISORY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE 
ONE FOR ALL OF UPSTATE NY AND THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF PA. WILL FCST 
WINDS JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACRS THE REMAINDER OF NE PA AND 
SULLIVAN COUNTY NY. DAY CREW CAN PERUSE THE 12Z DATA AND EXPAND THE 
ADVISORY IF NEEDED. 

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTNL, ANYTHING THAT DVLPS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP THE 
STRONG WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE POTNL APPEARS VERY LIMITED 
THIS AFTN DUE TO THE LACK OF SIG INSTABILITY AND LOW LVL MSTR. 
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT 925 AND 850 MB SHOWED LARGE T/TD SPREADS, AND 
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SFC TDS WITH GNRLY M/U 40S OVER OH. 
PROFILES MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING TDAS MAX TEMPS BUT EVEN WITH ADDNL 
WARMTH AT LOW LVLS, WE REALLY ARENT ABLE TO GENERATE ANY 
APPRECIABLE CAPE. IN ADDN, THE ETA TD PROFILES AT LOW AND MID LVLS 
MAY BE OVERDONE. A BETTER CHC FOR -SHRA/-TSRA APPEARS TO BE THIS 
EVNG, WHEN A BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ALONG THE FNT 
ACRS WRN NY AND THEN MOVE INTO THE BGM FCST AREA, AS THE SYNOPTIC 
WIND FIELD WILL STILL BE STRONG AT THAT TIME. 

ATTM, PLAN ON CUTTING BACK POPS TDA, WITH A DRY FCST ACRS CNTRL AND 
ERN ZONES, AND A SLGT CHC FAR WRN ZONES FROM STEUBEN INTO THE SRN 
TUG. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC THIS EVNG WITH FROPA. THE BAND OF 
SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVS INTO NE PA, BUT ACTIVITY EARLY 
IN THE PD ACRS THE WRN AND CNTRL ZONES COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG 
WINDS. AS FOR TEMPS TDA, AM TEMPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE 
BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS AND CRNT UPSTREAM READINGS. WELL SEE A GOOD 
AMT OF HIGH CLD TDA, BUT SHUD STILL GET ENOUGH HEATING SO THAT  MANY 
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS INTO THE L80S.

ETA PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LOW CLDS BEHIND THE FNT WHICH COULD 
PERSIST INTO THE ERLY MRNG HRS ON TUES, BUT THEYLL MIX OUT QUICKLY 
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCTD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO 
THE RGN. NO CHGS TO LATTER PDS. BRADY.


..EXTENDED (TUE NITE-SUN)
MED RANGE MDLS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TURNED COURSE AND HAVE NOW GONE TO 
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THIS PD. WARM FRONT SWINGS THRU THE REGION 
ERLY WEDS...FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT WHICH SLOWS BCMG PARALLEL TO SWLY 
UPR FLOW AND MEANDERS IN A QUASISTATIONARY MANNER OVER THE AREA THRU 
SUN. FCST WILL FEATURE SHRA CHCS THRU SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TDA, BUT WINDY WITH SW FLOW 20-30KT G40 STARTING THIS 
MRNG AND PERSISTING INTO THE AFTN. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVNG AS THE 
CDFNT PASSES THRU, WITH SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS PSBL BEHIND THE FNT TNGT 
AS ETA PROFILES SUGGEST A STRATUS DECK INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS. 

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING.
PA...WIND ADVISORY BRADFORD/SUSQUEHANNA/NORTHERN WAYNE INTO THIS     
     EVENING. 

$$