561 
FXUS63 KLBF 170829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN CHANCES AND 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24-60 HOURS AS THE WESTERN TROF AND 
ENERGY EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING SFC 
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN KS. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO 
EXTREME SW NEB TODAY AS AHEAD OF A WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL 
ROCKIES THAT WILL PUSH A SFC LOW INTO THE NEB/CO/KS BORDERS. THIS 
WILL LEAVE E/SEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA 
TODAY. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
ZONES WHERE SECONDARY THETA E RIDGE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT 
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD TMEPS 
SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS WITH EXCEPTIONS OVER FAR SOUTHERN 
ZONES NEAR SFC LOW AND THERMAL RIDGE. 70S MOST OF AREA WITH LOW TO 
MID 80S FAR SOUTH. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE 
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CWA. CAP 
SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK HOWEVER AS LVLL JET INCREASES AROUND 
SUNSET THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR INITIATION ESPECIALLY WITH 
INTERACTION WITH SFC BOUNDARY AND WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE 
APPROACHING UPPER TROF. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN EJECTING MAIN UPPER 
LOW OUT OF WY ROCKIES AND ACROSS SD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO 
SUNDAY...AND WILL PUSH SFC LOW ACROSS SD/NE BORDER INTO SW MINN. 
STRONGEST FORCING SUN WILL BE NORTH OF CWA WITH MAINLY WRAP AROUND 
ISSUES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 
SOUTHERN CWA MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. STRONG GRADIENT SETTING 
UP WITH SFC LOW TRACKING UP NORTH THIS WILL LEAVE STRONG SW WINDS IN 
PLACE ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF CWA WHICH WILL PULL IN DRY AIR OF THE 
PLAINS AND NIX ANY PCPN CHANCES IN THE SOUTH WHILE ONLY RAISING FIRE 
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS. TEMPS THIRD PROBLEM SUN WITH CAA IN THE 
AFTERNOON BEHIND FROPA. STILL LOOKS LIKE FAR SE CWA WILL WARM UP THE 
MOST BEFORE COOLER AIR SETS IN...WITH WIDE RANGE FROM THE MID 60S 
NW...LOWER 80S FAR SE. OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN TO PLAINS 
WITH FLOW FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS...EXCEPT FOR WAVE MOVING 
ACROSS ON TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS LIKE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN. GFS 
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE CONSISTENT FOR UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE 
SOUTHWEST HIGH PLAINS ON THURDAY AND CUTTING OFF...HOWEVER ONLY MADE 
MINOR TWEAKS TO EXTENDING PERIODS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWNG WESTERLY FLOW OVER HIGH PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD BE 
SHIFTING SW AS TROF OFF COAST MOVES ASHORE TODAY...WITH LOWEST HGHT 
FALLS ALONG THE SO CAL COAST WHERE STRONGER WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF 
TROF IS PROJECTED TO MOVE TO. PAIR OF SFC LOWS OVER FAR NW MO AND SE 
COLORADO WITH FRONT CONECTING THE TWO. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
ND...RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NEB.  

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DP