312 
FXUS63 KILX 011942
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
140 PM CST THU APR 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT HAVE 
SOME DIFFERENCES WITH SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT 
TERM IS TEMPS. PCPN CHANCES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS THE 
CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. MAINLY USED THE ETA MODEL IN THE SHORT TERM 
AND WENT WITH SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND IN THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH THE 
EXTENDED MODELS ARE CLOSE.  

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A 
DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT MAINLY DUE TO STRENGTH OF APRIL SUN 
AND A GOOD DEGREE OF INSOLATION EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS 
DEGREE OF SKY COVER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW SFC DEWPOINTS ARGUE 
TEMPS COULD GO A LITTLE BELOW WHAT THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING BUT 
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST ENUFF TO KEEP THINGS MIXED. SKIES SHOULD 
GO MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE I KEPT 
IT PC. BACKED OFF ON THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AND WENT MOSTLY SUNNY ALL 
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S DESPITE A CONTINUING 
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. COOL AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR. A COUPLE 
DEGREES WARMER ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. MODELS DISAGREE ON 
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY 
SUN. GFS MAKING MORE OF IT THAN THE ETA. FEEL THAT MOST ENERGY AND 
RH WILL STAY JUST TO OUR NE...THEREFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ETA 
MODEL HERE. STUCK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT LEFT ANY MENTION OF 
PCPN OUT OF THE PICTURE. COOLER SUNDAY AS BOTH MODELS AGREE ON 
DECENT 8H COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWERED SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE OF 
DEGREES ALSO. PC ON MONDAY BUT LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
QUIET MONDAY NIGHT BUT NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY IN NORTHWEST 
FLOW TUESDAY.  LATEST MRF INDICATES A FASTER MOVEMENT THAN PREVIOUS 
RUNS.  WILL LEAN TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION SLIGHTLY BUT HESITATE TO 
MAKE LARGE CHANGES UNTIL WE SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY.  BASED ON ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP IN 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE PRECIP IN FAR 
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT RETAIN ELSEWHERE.  IF FASTER SOLUTION BECOMES 
MORE CONSISTENT...LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DRYING AREA 
OUT MORE QUICKLY AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCING SOME POPS ON TUESDAY. 
EITHER WAY...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND THIS ONE DOESNT LOOK LIKE 
A BIG PRECIP EVENT.  ENSEMBLE MRF MOS INDICATES THAT OPERATIONAL MRF 
SEEMS TO BE OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITH REGARDS TO  
HIGHS ON THURSDAY...SO WILL UNDERCUT MEX THEN. DRY ON THURSDAY WITH 
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA BY FRIDAY.  

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE. 
&&

$$
HALL/BARKER