301 
FXUS61 KPHI 281508
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST SUN MAR 28 2004

DISC: VSBL SATL SHOWING RAPID CLEARING FROM NE/SW WITH A BACK EDGE
THAT IS CLEARING AT MOVING RATE OF 17KT. MDLS/SOUNDING DATA ALSO 
SHOW DRYING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

SEE YA

EBERWINE

***

.SYNOPSIS...
SORT OF A DREARY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SKIES WILL BE 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR DRIZZLE MUCH OF THE TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURGE OF COOLER AIR HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WINDS 
HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT.  
ASSOCD ST/STCU CLDS EXTD WELL TO THE NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND 
ADJ COASTAL WATERS. THUS EXPECT CLDY CONDS TO PERSIST MOST OF THE 
DAY ACROSS THE FA..ALTHO WRN OR NRN SXNS COULD SEE SOME AFTN 
BREAKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MSTR OVER THE 
REGION...EVEN THO MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY UNDER UPPER RDG 
AXIS. BELIEVE MOS TEMP GUIDANCE IS NOT FULLY ACCOUNTING FOR CLOUD 
EFFECTS WITH TOO LARGE A DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.  HAVE GENLY GONE BLO 
MAV MAX TEMPS AND ABOVE THE MIN TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E AND SE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL 
GIVE A CHC OF DRIZZLE AT TIMES...BUT MSRBL PRECIP IS UNLIKELY THRU 
MON NIGHT.

BY TUE AFTN THE UPPER RDG AXIS IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND A DVLPG 
UPR LOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL GIVE A BTR CHC FOR SGFNT PRECIP. 
INCRG SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A DEEPER MOIST 
LAYER. BEST UPWARD VV AND BEST CHC OF PRECIP IS FCST TO BE WED NIGHT 
AND THU. EVEN AFTER THAT THE LARGE UPR LOW SYS IS SMWHT SLOW TO MOVE 
OUT AND CYC FLOW ALF WILL FAVOR CONTD CLOUDINESS AND CHC PRECIP INTO 
SAT. 


&&

.MARINE...
EXTDD PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT 
OVER NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER DE BAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY TO 
BE A PROBLEM AS NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MPO 47 32 44 33 / 10 10 10 10 
ABE 53 35 48 37 / 10 10 10 10 
RDG 54 37 50 37 / 10 10 10 10 
PHL 53 39 50 39 / 10 10 10 10 
12N 51 28 47 34 / 10 10 10 10 
SMQ 52 36 48 36 / 10 10 10 10 
TTN 52 35 50 38 / 10 10 10 10 
MIV 51 37 47 39 / 10 10 20 10 
N55 45 38 45 39 / 10 10 20 10 
ACY 48 36 48 39 / 10 10 20 10 
ILG 51 39 48 39 / 10 10 10 10 
DOV 48 40 47 40 / 10 10 20 10 
GED 48 39 49 39 / 10 10 20 10 
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE/OCEAN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
MARINE/DEL BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER BAY.
&&

$$

AMC