086 
FXUS64 KFWD 182330
AFDFTW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 PM CST THU MAR 18 2004

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR THIS EVENING AND THEN MVFR WITH CIGS BKN-OVC015-025 BY 09Z 
METROPLEX AND SOON KACT. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AGAIN BY 16Z WITH 
SSE FLOW OVERNIGHT. 80

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE 
DIFFUSED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALSO EXISTS.  CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS 
TSRA THERE TONIGHT...AND ADDED ISOLATED CHANCE SOUTHWEST WHERE 
IN-HOUSE ETA INDICATES SOMETHING MAY GO.

ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN CAPPED (CONVECTIVE TEMP = 88F)... THE ATMOSPHERE 
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S DOWN NEAR MINUS 6...CAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG 
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE 
THE POTENTIAL FOR TURNING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS 
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  VERTICAL SHEAR FOR TILTED UPDRAFTS REMAINS 
ON THE LOW SIDE...THUS SUPERCELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

LLJ SETS UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DRAW STRATUS DECK BACK OVER 
THE CWA BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH 1000 AM.  ANOTHER NICE DAY SET FOR 
FRIDAY... BUT HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA OVER THE NORTHEAST 
WHERE THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LINGERS.

SATURDAY WILL BE NICE...BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY MIDNIGHT WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 
RED RIVER AND WORK THESE SOUTH AND INCREASE THEM TO CHANCE POPS AS 
THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE CWA.  MUCH COOLER SUNDAY UNDER MOSTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS.  WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER 
NORTH WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.

COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE COULD BE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE OLD SUNDAY FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER 
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.  ADDED SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO SHORT WAVE PASSING 
THROUGH THE REGION.  THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TO CHANCE POPS IN 
LATER PACKAGES AS THE STRENGTHEN OF THE SHORT WAVE AND PATH WILL 
LIKELY CHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.  75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   62  82  63  83 /  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX               63  83  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              61  81  61  80 /  10  20  10  20
DENTON, TX             61  82  61  83 /  10   0  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX           62  81  62  82 /  10   0  10  20
DALLAS, TX             62  82  63  83 /  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            62  82  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          63  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             63  83  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&


.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

$$