503 
FXUS63 KILX 090308
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
908 PM CST MON MAR 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FIRST BATCH MOVED 
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED 
SINCE 6 PM. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER BAND OF SNOWFALL TRYING TO GET MORE 
ORGANIZED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. NOT TOO IMPRESSED 
WITH REPORTS THUS FAR...AND 00Z KILX SOUNDING SUGGESTED QUITE A BIT 
OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME STILL IN LOW LEVELS. STILL...00Z MODELS PAINT 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
DIVING DOWN TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MADE 
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATED 
WESTERN AREAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING SNOW CHANCES. LOOKS 
LIKE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY 
OVERNIGHT (THROUGH 2 AM OR SO). NO OTHER UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS 
TIME. BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST CORNER OF 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN
SCENT MN WILL RACE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL TONIGHT...BRINGING 
SOME SNOW WITH IT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WED INTO THURS...
AND AGAIN THIS COMING WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE ETA MODEL HAS COME AROUND TO THE GFS SOLUTION OF ALLOWING THE 
SURFACE LOW IN SCENT MN TO TRACK FROM NW TO SE...ALONG A LINE FROM
THE BURLINGTON IA TO EFFINGAHM LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH FITS WELL
WITH CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALL TRENDS. TEMPS ARE COLD 
ENOUGH ALOFT...AIDED BY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...TO PRODUCE SNOW
ALREADY IN THE QUAD CITIES AREA. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT IS BEING
REPORTED IS ACROSS SRN MN AT THIS TIME. THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL. 
LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON-EFFINGHAM CAN EXPECT
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST AND IS AIDED BY A 140KT+
JET MAX. THUS...SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED EAST OF
A LINE FROM CMI-PARIS-MARSHALL WHERE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN 
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END IN ALL BUT SE IL
BY DAYBREAK...WHERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
A SHORT WHILE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
TOMORROW EVENING WILL GIVE US CLEARING SKIES AND CHILLY TEMPS. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY WED.
THIS ONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THE SHORTWAVE 
TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WED
AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE IL RIVER...AND IN ALL OF CENT/SE
IL WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. 

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING AS A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENT IL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY BY SATURDAY AS A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE
GFS INDICATED THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WOULD 
PHASE...ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THAT WILL INDEED OCCUR...WITH THE LATEST GFS HINTING THAT THIS
WILL NOT HAPPEN. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DOES INDICATE THIS PHASING WILL
HAPPEN...WHILE THE UK MODEL BRINGS OUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM FIRST.
IN ANY EVENT...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN SAT-SAT NIGHT
...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTH...AND LIGHT SNOW 
OR FLURRIES ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
MILLER/PLAHMER